We’re 1 / 4 of the best way by the NHL season, which implies it’s time for 2 issues: saying “quarter-pole” round your most pedantic associates simply to harass them and writing items about how nothing goes the best way we anticipated.
We’ve been overlaying that latter floor for many of the season round right here, together with final week’s reminder that you were wrong about all this stuff, too. So this time, let’s change it up. Certain, this can be a league the place nearly nothing is enjoying out the best way we thought: The Oilers are unhealthy, the Flames are good, the Predators are horrible, the Capitals and Wild are nice, the Jets are dominant, the Avalanche are .500 and the Bruins are collapsing. Connor McDavid is exterior the highest 10 in factors, Connor McMichael is unstoppable and Connor Bedard is regressing in Yr 2. None of it makes any sense. But when we dig deep sufficient, absolutely we are able to discover a couple of issues which are really enjoying out the best way all of us anticipated, proper?
After all we are able to. I’m undecided we are able to discover 5, however let’s attempt.
Bonus 5: Early-season tales enjoying out just about the best way all of us anticipated
5. The underside of the barrel — Aside from the Predators making an attempt to nudge their manner in, the battle for lifeless final has just about featured the groups you’d anticipate. The Hawks, Sharks and Habs are all struggling by one other rebuild 12 months and are holding a spot open for the mildly stunning Ducks and Blue Jackets.
4. The Leafs are good — Whereas the trail has had a couple of surprises, like an Auston Matthews harm and better-than-expected goaltending, the Leafs beneath Craig Berube are just about proper the place we might have thought: a little bit higher defensively, a little bit worse offensively, on tempo for house ice within the playoffs and nonetheless topic of the occasional freak-out after they lose two in a row. And, as at all times, adequate to be an early playoff lock however not fairly adequate to really feel like sturdy Cup contenders.
3. The Stars are actually good — They’re the one crew from the West that’s been within the prime 5 every week thus far, and I can’t inform you how a lot I respect them making my job just a bit bit simpler each Sunday.
2. The awards races aside from the Hart — The MVP race has already thrown us a curve, with Kirill Kaprizov rising because the early favourite whereas McDavid begins gradual and Matthews falls off the board. However elsewhere, we’re nearer to seeing the anticipated names. The Norris is shaping as much as be one other spherical of Cale Makar vs. Quinn Hughes, with a little bit of Victor Hedman, Adam Fox and Rasmus Dahlin combined in. The Calder race has been led by Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven and Macklin Celebrini, with a little bit of Lane Hutson combined in. And the Vezina would come right down to a battle between the 2 consensus favorites, Connor Hellebuyck and Igor Shesterkin. Just about how we might have drawn it up.
1. The Metro, apart from the Capitals — OK, we have been all unsuitable in regards to the Caps, and should you assume I’m going to recommend they’re in bother now that Alex Ovechkin is out for some time, neglect it. However apart from Washington, the remainder of the division appears about proper. The Hurricanes are superb, as at all times. The Rangers are additionally good, however depart you wanting extra. The Devils are again. The Islanders are OK. The Flyers and Blue Jackets are out enjoying powerful however aren’t playoff contenders. And the Penguins are enjoying out the worst-case state of affairs of what felt like a variety of outcomes.
It’s good when issues work out the best way you thought they’d, if just for 20 video games or so. On to this week’s rankings …
Street to the Cup
The 5 groups with the perfect probabilities of profitable the Stanley Cup.
It’s commerce board time. Take a look at CJ’s opening list of the season to search out out which gamers your contending crew will little doubt be including for that one 27-year-old prospect and a fifth-round decide.
5. Vegas Golden Knights (13-6-2, +17 true objectives differential*) — Truthful warning: It’s a bizarre week for the highest 5, with many of the league’s prime groups driving mini-slumps. That’s OK for our functions, the place the long run is extra vital than an occasional two-game dropping streak. The Knights had one earlier within the week however shook it off with wins over the Senators and Canadiens. They get Colorado and Winnipeg this week, which ought to be a barely more durable take a look at.
4. Florida Panthers (12-8-1, +1) — They dropped the rematch with the Jets on Monday, certainly one of three straight regulation losses which have opened the door for the Leafs to move them for prime spot within the Atlantic. They get their first matchup of the season with Toronto on Wednesday, a part of a really powerful week that additionally options the Capitals and a home-and-home with the Hurricanes.
3. Dallas Stars (13-6-0, +21) — They’re the one crew on this week’s prime 5 that’s fairly scorching, with regulation wins in 5 of their final six. They get the Hurricanes tonight in what stands out as the sport of the week.
2. Winnipeg Jets (17-4-0, +34) — They took one other regulation loss, their third of their final 5 video games, and this time in opposition to a nasty Predators crew. No one ought to be panicking but, however a robust efficiency in a showdown sport with the Wild tonight would definitely assist settle some nerves in Winnipeg.
In different information, Kyle Connor is a goon now.
1. Carolina Hurricanes (14-5-1, +28) — Two losses aren’t a giant concern. However dropping one other goalie could be, and Pyotr Kochetkov having to come out in overtime after a collision is unhealthy information. We don’t know the extent of the harm, so we received’t depend it in opposition to the Hurricanes fairly but, but it surely’s price watching.
*Objectives differential with out counting shootout choices just like the NHL does for some motive.
Not ranked: Boston Bruins — So, now what?
We obtained our first coach firing of the season this week, one which went from far-fetched to inevitable actual fast. Jim Montgomery got here into the season with the very best win proportion of any Bruins coach ever. However after the Bruins rolled over for the Blue Jackets on house ice on Monday night time, it was over. On the podcast, the talk wasn’t whether or not Boston would make a change however whether or not it might occur whereas we have been recording. They held out for a couple of additional hours, for the document.
OK, so that they’ve performed the straightforward half. And the Joe Sacco period at the least obtained off to a good begin with a pair of coach’s dream low-scoring wins, 1-0 over Utah and 2-1 over the Red Wings. For all of the occasions a great coach finally ends up as a scapegoat and a change doesn’t assist something, typically you actually do want a brand new voice and a recent set of eyes. Possibly Sacco is that man, and might nudge what nonetheless looks like a great crew on paper again in the suitable path. Or possibly the coach received’t matter a lot, however Jeremy Swayman will lastly shake off the rust of a missed camp and begin enjoying like his pre-extension self, at which level every part else solidifies from the web out.
If not? That’s the place it will get powerful. There actually is an end-of-an-era feel about this Bruins begin. Possibly we don’t must overthink it. Possibly this can be a crew that isn’t adequate down the center, whose second-best ahead is slowing down at 36 and whose blue line isn’t fairly adequate to paper over a slumping younger goaltender, and all of it provides as much as a playoff miss no one noticed coming however possibly ought to have.
That is the half the place I’d marvel what Don Sweeney would do in that case, solely I’m undecided it might be Sweeney making these calls. The NHL’s fourth-longest tenured GM has had a ton of success in Boston, and possibly that is simply the inevitable ending in a league that craves parity and punishes excellence.
However so far as getting this group, or one thing near it, again on observe? If there’s a simple reply, other than a new-coach bounce and a goalie snapping out of his funk, I’m not seeing it. Bruins followers, the place’s your hope index at as we hit the quarter mark?
The underside 5
The 5 groups which are headed towards lifeless final and the perfect lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
That Bruins teaching story continued when the largest information of the weekend got here out of St. Louis, the place the Blues jumped at the chance to hire Montgomery. That meant firing Drew Bannister after solely 76 video games, simply 22 of these with out the interim tag. That’s a tricky name to make, however clearly Doug Armstrong didn’t wish to let a possibility slip by, particularly along with his crew struggling badly in his penultimate 12 months as GM.
For now, we’ll maintain the Blues out of the underside 5 till we see what Montgomery can do. However that doesn’t imply we don’t have room for a brand new entry …
5. Pittsburgh Penguins (7-12-4, -33) — I can’t maintain them out any longer. Not after a weekend that noticed them outscored 10-2 in a pair of losses. Ah nicely, at the least a kind of objectives offered a little bit of historical past:
You’ve nonetheless obtained Crosby, Pens followers. Simply don’t take into consideration how it’s all going to end.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets (9-9-2, -3) — The entire David Jiricek scenario is bizarre. You’re constructing a tradition of accountability, so that you definitely don’t wish to hand something to anybody based mostly on draft pedigree. However you’re additionally rebuilding, and the event of a man you spent a No. 6 decide on must be a precedence. Possibly that improvement is extra prone to occur with huge minutes within the AHL, and that’s all this demotion is. Nevertheless it’s led to some commerce hypothesis, and GM Don Waddell didn’t precisely sound like a man who wasn’t considering that manner when he was asked about it. Let’s see the place this goes.
3. Montreal Canadiens (7-11-2, -20) — They performed possibly their finest sport of the season in final Monday’s win over the Oilers, then possibly had too many days off to consider it earlier than a disappointing follow-up against the Knights.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (7-12-2, -14) — what, it’s been a tough season, we’ll enable it.
The Blackhawks are blaring Tina Turner's "Merely the Greatest" within the locker room after beating the Panthers.
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) November 22, 2024
Additionally, Bedard is a shutdown defensive center now. He additionally has three objectives on the 12 months, and I don’t even wish to take into consideration the place this discourse goes to go within the subsequent month or two if the puck doesn’t begin moving into for him.
1. San Jose Sharks (6-12-5, -23) — I assumed this was a neat find by Eric: The Sharks are racking up objectives with the goalie out, scoring a league-leading six occasions at six-on-five. Does that imply they need to play the entire sport that manner? No, clearly not, don’t be ridiculous. You’d positively put a goalie in internet if it was late within the third interval and also you have been defending a lead. However ought to they begin each sport at six-on-five? Look, I’m simply saying that the mathematics checks out.
Additionally, Joe Thornton completely guidelines.
For one final time by the Shark Head: Joe Thornton. #19ForeverTeal x #GreatestOfAllTeal pic.twitter.com/lFgzQOEX2T
— San Jose Sharks (@SanJoseSharks) November 23, 2024
(And for the document, yes he still would.)
Not ranked: Ottawa Senators — They swore it wouldn’t occur once more.
The Senators went into the season anticipating enchancment. Ideally that might imply a playoff spot, though even essentially the most optimistic fan knew that wasn’t a assure. However at a minimal, they’d be within the race, enjoying significant hockey all season lengthy.
The one factor that wouldn’t occur — that couldn’t occur — could be yet one more gradual begin that had them trying up on the race by the top of November. That had been the theme in Ottawa for years: offseason optimism, then nearly quick disappointment, then months of finger-pointing between video games that didn’t matter.
However these have been Pierre Dorion’s groups, and D.J. Smith’s groups, and even Eugene Melnyk’s groups. This was a brand new begin. This time was going to be completely different.
Up to now, it hasn’t been all that completely different.
Twenty video games into a vital season, the Senators are beneath .500, sitting at 8-11-1 after dropping their fifth straight, a 4-3 house loss to the Canucks on Saturday. Possibly worse, it’s largely been the identical story as the previous couple of seasons: An thrilling and proficient core has too many lapses at too many unsuitable moments, and pays for it due to substandard goaltending. That final half was speculated to be mounted by the Linus Ullmark commerce, and the Senators have 33 million causes to hope his gradual begin is only a case of a veteran adjusting to a brand new crew. However this has been a sample in Ottawa, the place goalies with strong observe information present up and instantly worsen. And it will possibly’t occur once more.
The season definitely hasn’t been a catastrophe, and the Sens are one four-game win streak from being proper again within the combine. The autumn of the Bruins has put an sudden playoff spot into play, canceling out the one the Capitals appear intent on maintaining. The trail is there. However with a brand new proprietor, a brand new GM, a brand new coach and a brand new beginning goalie, there are going to be powerful questions if all of it performs out the identical manner it at all times does. And for as soon as, these questions might need to start out with possibly essentially the most uncomfortable of all: Are we positive this younger core is definitely adequate?
Not making an attempt to sound dramatic in any respect right here, however subsequent on the chopping block (if this continues) isn’t the coach, or the GM, or the proprietor. It’ll be a core piece participant and it’s going to sting.
This crew appeared disengaged tonight in opposition to a drained EDM crew. Not good.
— Marc Methot (@MarcMethot3) November 20, 2024
For what it’s price, Steve Staios remains to be preaching patience, as a result of he’s an NHL GM and that’s all they know how one can do, at the least publicly. And the gamers, particularly captain Brady Tkachuk, are nonetheless saying all the right things. They’ve definitely had loads of apply over time. So have their followers, who’ve been by this sufficient occasions that they’re getting used to studying items about their crew that lean on words like “scars” and “baggage.”
The following two weeks ought to be essential, and in that case, it’s at the least a good schedule — after the Flames tonight, they head off for the three-game California journey that options two rebuilding groups, then come house for winnable video games in opposition to the Purple Wings, Predators and Islanders. You’d assume that four-game win streak ought to be in there someplace. But when it isn’t … nicely, possibly Julian’s obtained it proper.
Right here’s the factor that scares me in regards to the Senators and their dropping streak. It could possibly worsen.
It’s apparent, however, hear me out.
When you’re panicking about this crew now. Think about in the event that they lose to Calgary on Monday.
And now think about in the event that they lose to SJS or Anaheim? Even LA.
— Julian McKenzie (@jkamckenzie) November 24, 2024
For now, we’ve seen this film earlier than in Ottawa. This time, the remake includes a largely new solid. Sens followers are ready to see if this one goes to lastly have a unique ending.
(Picture of the Ottawa Senators: André Ringuette / NHLI through Getty Pictures)
