July 1 has come and gone, marking probably the most vital dates on the NHL calendar.
Free company? Extensions? The beginning of the brand new league 12 months? Yeah, I suppose that every one issues a bit. However I’m speaking in regards to the really large stuff: The top of the annual prediction contest.
Sure, with the primary day of free company over with, we are able to formally shut the ebook on the 2024-25 contest. It was the fourth time we’ve run this factor, and scores have been growing yearly. In principle, you guys are getting higher at this. In actuality … effectively, we’ll get to that.
As common, the gimmick right here is that the questions are straightforward, however you are taking a zero if you happen to supply even one flawed reply, so the risk-reward can get difficult. In case you missed out on the competition or may use a refresher on the way it all works, yow will discover the original post here. An preliminary abstract got here per week later, by which we discovered that nobody believed in Sam Reinhart. Appropriately, because it seems. I’m positive he’ll be crushed as soon as he and the remainder of his teammates sober up. In the event that they ever do.
The excellent news is that, not like final 12 months, there was no tie on the prime this time. There was one winner. Was it you? Possibly! (No.) Let’s undergo the questions and see how this performed out for the 1,200 or so entrants.
Query 1: Identify as much as 5 groups that may make the playoffs.
Proper off the bat, you bumped into a significant drawback with what, in principle, was one of many simpler questions. Roughly three-quarters of you, 913 in all, had the Rangers in your listing of postseason sure-things. It’s laborious in charge you, given they had been coming off a 114-point season that noticed them win the Presidents’ Trophy, however their surprising collapse meant the overwhelming majority of you began with a zero. All informed, solely 241 of you banked any factors in any respect on Query 1, with Vancouver, Boston and Nashville additionally taking out dozens of entries.
Query 2: Identify as much as 5 groups that won’t make the playoffs.
This one went a bit of higher, with the highest 4 responses (San Jose, Columbus, Chicago and Anaheim) all appropriate, though the Blue Jackets positive made 1,106 of you sweat. The issue got here with the fifth workforce, and the 680 of you who knew there was no manner the Canadiens would see the postseason. Montreal did make the playoffs, taking out greater than half of you. The Blues, Senators and Capitals additionally did some harm right here.
In previous years, banking the utmost 30 factors throughout the primary two questions was near necessary if you happen to needed to compete for the highest spot. Evidently, it was a tough begin this time round, and we’ve got two Authentic Six surprises to thank for that.
Query 3: Identify as much as 5 groups that may end within the center 16 of the regular-season standings (i.e., between ninth and twenty fourth).
That is meant to be a low-key difficult one, however you principally did effectively this 12 months. Your 4 commonest solutions — the Wild, Islanders, Crimson Wings and Penguins — had been all appropriate, though Pittsburgh wanted the second tiebreaker to sneak into twenty fourth place. The most typical flawed solutions had been a pair of overachievers, with the Kings (534 entries) and Capitals (314) each ending within the prime eight. Different flawed solutions on the great facet included the Jets (232 entries) and Lightning (175), whereas the opposite facet of the ledger noticed a few of you punished for believing within the Sabres (233), Kraken (191) and Predators (150). Man, the Sabres being unhealthy, who may have ever seen that coming?
Shout out to Jeff P. and John B., each of whom managed to go 0-for-5 on this query. I’m unsure how the maths works, however I really feel like that’s in all probability more durable than going 5-for-5. Good work, gents.
Query 4: Identify as much as 5 coaches who won’t be fired or in any other case depart their job earlier than July 1, 2025, NOT together with any of the 12 coaches who had been employed after Oct. 1, 2023.
Query 5: Identify as much as 5 GMs who won’t be fired or in any other case depart their job earlier than July 1, 2025, NOT together with any of the 11 GMs who had been employed after Oct. 1, 2022.
As at all times, the coaches and GMs needed to make it by way of not simply the common season, however the begin of the offseason, too. That turned out to be vital for the most typical flawed reply on the teaching facet, who was nonetheless employed into June. That will be Pete DeBoer, who value 487 of you right here. Different widespread misses included Rick Tocchet (415), Peter Laviolette (271) and Jim Montgomery (249)
All informed, 971 of you tried for max factors by itemizing 5 coaches, however solely 84 pulled it off efficiently. An extra 86 managed to select up no less than a number of factors by going the cowardly conservative route with fewer solutions.
The excellent news is that the GM query was principally free cash, since solely three groups made adjustments. None of these had been surprises, no less than in keeping with your entries — the most typical flawed reply was Seattle’s Ron Francis, whose firing took out a comparatively meagre 82 entries. The Kings’ Rob Blake was solely talked about 29 instances, and the Islanders’ Lou Lamoriello solely caught 22 of you. All informed, a formidable 817 of you maxed out this query, and 153 extra bought no less than one thing.
And as at all times, manner too lots of you didn’t trouble studying the total query and tried to listing current hires. That included Dianne P. and Nik S., who each listed 10 complete names throughout these two questions, each one in every of which was employed too lately to be eligible. Hey, if you happen to’re going to overlook, miss large.
Kings goalie Darcy Kuemper began precisely 50 video games this previous season. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Photos)
Query 6: Identify as much as 5 goaltenders who will begin no less than 50 video games this season.
That is one other query that’s historically been a supply of 5-for-5 factors for eventual winners. This 12 months’s solutions featured a transparent large three of Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros and Igor Shesterkin, who all appeared on no less than 900 entries and had been certainly appropriate solutions. The most typical misses had been comparatively painless, with Jacob Markstrom, Linus Ullmark and Alexandar Georgiev(!) all getting no less than 150 mentions.
Additionally, congratulations to Mike P. and Matthew B., the one two entries out of 1,200+ to listing Vezina finalist Darcy Kuemper for the goaltending query. He barely made it, recording 50 begins (and never a single aid look), however he counted.
Query 7: Identify as much as 5 rookies who will end prime 10 in Calder balloting.
This one has been an entry-wrecker for the previous couple of years, which scared most of you off — solely 335 of you listed the utmost 5 gamers right here. That turned out to be a mistake this 12 months, as the most typical solutions had been all the right ones. We didn’t get to any flawed solutions till Rutger McGroarty and Josh Doan, who appeared on simply 51 and 46 entries, respectively.
The truth is, not solely did every of the seven commonest entries qualify as proper solutions, they made up the precise prime seven in Calder balloting. Properly executed by everybody, however particularly the 203 of you who went 5-for-5.
Query 8: Identify as much as 5 defensemen who will end prime 10 in Norris balloting.
After the comparatively straightforward factors from the Calder query, this one was a massacre. Eventual winner Cale Makar appeared on nearly each entry, and Quinn Hughes was additionally secure regardless of lacking time. Nonetheless, these had been the one two names out of your collective prime seven to ship. Adam Fox took out 977 of you on his personal, and if you happen to dodged him, you in all probability fell sufferer to Roman Josi (808 entries), Miro Heiskanen (553), Evan Bouchard (427) or Charlie McAvoy (110).
I’ll pause right here to applaud Alan F. and Jonathan B., the one two entries to incorporate Norris runner-up Zach Werenski, in addition to Karl Eric S., who was the one entry in the whole contest to have Thomas Harley.
All informed, not a single entry managed a 5-for-5 on this query. The truth is, no person even managed a 4-for-4, and solely 21 of you managed to get any factors in any respect. That’s a brand new file for futility. Let’s by no means communicate of this once more.
Query 9: Identify as much as 5 gamers who will end prime 15 in Hart Trophy voting.
Welcome to life as a Leafs fan within the playoffs, since you ought to all be actually mad at Auston Matthews. He was named on 1,106 entries, making him this 12 months’s record-holder for the most typical flawed reply. Mixed with the help for Jack Hughes (273 entries), Sidney Crosby (123) and Artemi Panarin (99), this was one other robust one.
How robust? Of the 808 of you who listed 5 names on this query, a measly three escaped with max factors. (Good work, Jason J., Asher S. and Logan F.) And solely 43 of you bought any factors in any respect.
That brings us to the apparent query: Did anybody handle to get factors on each the Norris and Hart questions? Sure … two of you. Congratulations to Francis G., who listed Quinn Hughes for the Norris and Connor McDavid for the Hart to earn a mixed complete of two complete factors. That’s pathetic, however just one entry may beat him: Dylan B., who had Makar for the Norris and McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon for the Hart. Credit score the place it’s due, that’s 5 factors Dylan banked and also you didn’t.
Query 10: Identify as much as 5 gamers at the moment on an NHL roster who will change groups between Oct. 9 and the tip of the primary day of 2025 free company (scheduled to be July 1). This implies they should be on a brand new roster by way of commerce, free company, waivers or no matter else, however doesn’t embrace retirement, leaving the league fully or being an unsigned free agent.
The dreaded roster transfer query, which takes us proper as much as 11:59 p.m. on July 1. That was unhealthy information for the 167 of you who had Nikolaj Ehlers discovering a brand new workforce by then, however he was solely the fourth commonest miss. The highest spot truly went to Frank Vatrano, who was named on 407 entries earlier than deciding to re-up with the Geese.
All informed, solely 4 of you went 5-for-5 right here; good job by Corey B., Sean F., Chris B. and Holden M. (Additionally, our buddy Dylan B. listed solely Timothy Liljegren right here, incomes him yet one more level. If the competition solely had one other 60 or so questions, his conservative technique would have had him within the working for prime spot.)
Elective bonus query: For 15 bonus factors, title one and just one participant who will end this season with no less than 50 targets, however who just isn’t Auston Matthews.
As soon as once more, you had the choice to danger your whole entry on the bonus. As soon as once more, most of you probably did: 794 of you selected to reply right here, whereas 445 determined to not probability it. That latter group might have had the fitting thought, as this season solely served up a single 50-goal scorer in Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl.
The excellent news is that Draisaitl was the second commonest reply. The unhealthy information is that solely 158 of you had him, that means 636 of you flushed your entry away on picks corresponding to David Pastrnak (300 entries), McDavid (92), MacKinnon (73) and Kirill Kaprizov (65). The listing of entry-wiping solutions additionally included each of you who believed in Reinhart. By the best way, the league’s second-place aim scorer with 45 within the 12 months, William Nylander, was not named on a single entry.
And the winner is …
Not you. However you already know that by now.
It was a tricky 12 months, with no person cracking the 100-point mark for the primary time since 2022 (when there have been fewer questions). Solely seven entries even managed to get to the 80-point mark, an inventory that included Brian W.’s 80 on the nostril, in addition to 81 factors for Samuel F. and Daniel B. Shut, however not shut sufficient.
The silver medal can be cut up 3 ways, with Vladic Okay., Hugo T. and Samuel P. all ending with 85 factors. Every of them maxed out 4 questions for 15 factors every, added a 10-spot elsewhere, after which nailed Draisaitl for the bonus. And every fell simply quick. All three could have loads to consider over the offseason — Vladic can blame the Kings for lacking the mushy center by a number of factors, Hugo can curse Georgiev for falling three begins in need of 50, and Samuel had an agonizing 4 completely different questions with only one miss: Montreal for query 2, Seattle for query 3, Matthews for query 9 and Vatrano for query 10. Not solely would he have received the competition if any of these gamers had come by way of, he’d even have received if he’d solely left any of these solutions off his entry fully. Secure is demise, as John Tortorella as soon as mentioned, however Samuel could be our champion if he’d performed it only a bit safer.
He didn’t, and that’s excellent news for our winner: Congratulations to Matt A., whose 88 factors had been sufficient to prime our leaderboard in a “Jamie Benn wins the Artwork Ross” degree efficiency. Matt banked the max factors on every of the primary three questions earlier than getting tripped up by DeBoer and Tocchet on the coaches. He recovered with max scores on the GMs and the goalies and dodged the Calder bullet by itemizing solely Macklin Celebrini and Lane Hutson. His followers in all probability booed him for taking part in it secure, however these three factors made the distinction. He banked 10 extra factors on the Hart query to get to 88, which was sufficient to beat misses on the Norris and the transactions.
And sure, you’re studying that proper — for the primary time, our winner is an entrant who bypassed the bonus query. I wasn’t positive it may very well be executed, however the NHL is filled with surprises.
Congratulations to Matt. Thanks to everybody who performed alongside, even if you happen to had been one of many many entries to get a zero for the 12 months. And an enormous because of Mike, whose work in scraping the information and sustaining the entry database is invaluable.
We’ll plan to do all of it once more in September. Till then, take the summer time to strategize. Most of you might have nowhere to go however up.
(Prime picture of Auston Matthews: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Photos)
