Goaltending will be the nice equalizer in hockey. And generally, it may be what completely sinks a staff.
It’s early within the season, with most groups hovering across the 10-game mark. However some developments are rising price maintaining a tally of.
Alexandar Georgiev has gotten off to a brutal begin for the Colorado Avalanche, with over-aggressive errors which have confirmed pricey. Whereas Justus Annunen has been stable by 4 begins, he solely has 24 video games of NHL expertise, which will be dicey for a contender to wager on.
The Avalanche typically don’t want game-breaking goaltending to excel as a result of they’re stacked in entrance of the blue paint. However with mounting accidents and absences, they’ll’t afford to let goaltending to tug them down.
Goaltending isn’t the one downside for the Pittsburgh Penguins proper now, but it surely is likely one of the greatest early storylines. Tristian Jarry has been despatched all the way down to the AHL within the second yr of a five-year, $26.9 million contract. Whereas he hasn’t been an outright catastrophe to open the yr, he hasn’t been dependable. Alex Nedeljkovic isn’t trusty sufficient in an expanded position, which has opened the door for Joel Blomqvist. As a lot as he has impressed, particularly in a 46-save outing towards Edmonton on Friday, the Penguins are in a less-than-ideal place in web.
It’s too early to say if Georgiev or Jarry’s begins will result in some goalie motion, contemplating how uncommon mid-season trades are. Perhaps considered one of them will discover their footing like Stuart Skinner did final yr in Edmonton. That’s one thing the Oilers must depend on once more after he has additionally stumbled out of the gate.
Connor Ingram hasn’t discovered final yr’s magic but, and key accidents on protection doubtless are solely straining the Utah goalie. The New Jersey Devils, then again, regardless of making huge additions, nonetheless don’t have dependable goaltending. Between Jacob Markström and Jake Allen, they solely have a mixed 5 high quality begins by 12 video games.
The Philadelphia Flyers have already seemed for reinforcements from inside due to Ivan Fedotov and Sam Ersson’s struggles. Aleksei Kolosov was referred to as up from Lehigh Valley and began final Saturday night time.
The unhealthy tends to be extra eye-catching than the nice, however there have been some vibrant spots within the early going as properly.
Jake Oettinger has been implausible in Dallas after a shaky season, by his requirements, final yr. Igor Shesterkin seems like he’s price each penny he would possibly get in New York, choosing up the place he left off final spring. However one of many greatest standouts is a goalie with out the assist of a contender-level staff in entrance of him.
Lukáš Dostál has been the distinction in Anaheim this season, with high quality begins in six of his seven appearances regardless of dealing with one of many hardest workloads within the league.
The query is how lengthy he can face up to that workload and whether or not it should ultimately weigh him down because the yr rolls on. If Dostál proves he is able to take over because the starter in that atmosphere, perhaps administration may lastly undergo with a John Gibson commerce. At this fee, there must be consumers.
Checking in on final yr’s shock 50-plus purpose scorers
Everybody predicted Sam Reinhart and Zach Hyman ending second and third in goal-scoring final season, proper?
Can both repeat?
With seven targets in 11 video games, Reinhart’s off to a robust begin. However is a 52-goal tempo reasonable? After taking pictures a league-leading 24.5 p.c final yr, Reinhart nonetheless has a sizzling hand with a 23 p.c fee to start out. However that ought to regress nearer to common sooner or later. That would decelerate his tempo if he doesn’t choose up his scoring probability era under the floor.
Reinhart’s pictures have added as much as an anticipated purpose worth of three.19; throughout an 82-game season, that shakes out to a 23.8 tempo. That’s a significant drop from final yr’s 42. With Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk each again within the fold, Reinhart ought to add extra substance behind his goal-scoring.
For Hyman, the 2023-24 season virtually felt like an over-correction from 2022-23 when he struggled to transform on plenty of his forehand probabilities. He generated a ton of high quality probabilities in all conditions that added as much as a person anticipated purpose complete of 57 — and that’s earlier than accounting for the harmful puck motion that always preceded these pictures, due to Connor McDavid’s playmaking.
Capturing 18.6 p.c was out of character for Hyman, however whilst that comes again all the way down to Earth, the Oilers must be left with a productive purpose scorer. He simply has to start out breaking by this season. He’s nonetheless with out a purpose however after a sluggish first couple of video games, Hyman seems much more just like the scoring probability generator of final season; solely Auston Matthews is forward of Hyman’s 6.8 anticipated targets heading into Wednesday night time’s matchups. The issue now could be that he doesn’t have the identical playmaking to arrange his pictures as lengthy as McDavid is sidelined.
Whereas there have been pink flags for each Reinhart and Hyman final yr, they’re each on powerhouse groups surrounded by elite playmakers. These two ought to hold pushing the boundaries from years previous; perhaps their new regular is in that 40-goal vary.
Broberg and Holloway are clicking in St. Louis
The Blues made waves with two supply sheets this summer time. St. Louis didn’t goal the largest restricted free brokers in the marketplace however went for mid-tier up-and-coming gamers on a staff in a wage bind.
It was a calculated method that appears to be paying off to date this season. Dylan Holloway’s made a constructive influence on each ends of the ice at five-on-five, whereas Philip Broberg’s popping off on the scoresheet. Each gamers can develop with the Blues because the staff tries to show issues round with out a full-on tear-down.
Supply sheets have been few and much between during the last 10 years, and the fiascos between Carolina and Montreal with Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi doubtless didn’t assist issues. However when used accurately, they might help a staff acquire a aggressive benefit. The Blues don’t want Holloway and Broberg to seem like steals to encourage basic managers to be daring — they only must show they’re definitely worth the worth of acquisition (and the potential fallout a suggestion sheet may cause).
Are the Bruins frauds?
Boston got here into the yr with a 69 p.c probability of reaching the playoffs. That’s dropped down to 48 percent after a 4-5-1 begin.
Middling five-on-five outcomes contribute to that downtick. The Bruins have underwhelmed defensively and been lackluster offensively, each when it comes to shot quantity and high quality. All of it provides as much as a forty five.6 p.c anticipated purpose fee that ranked twenty fifth within the league forward of Wednesday’s matchups. Particular groups play hasn’t accomplished the staff any favors, both.
Loads of it falls on gamers tapped to be difference-makers. Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm haven’t been dependable sufficient defensively; neither has offseason add Nikita Zadorov. Elias Lindholm hasn’t been efficient sufficient on both finish of the ice and doesn’t look in sync with David Pastrňák. And Brad Marchand’s gotten off to a sluggish begin.
A staff can’t miss out on the playoffs in October, however they’ll dig themselves an early gap that may chunk them when it issues most. The Bruins don’t look playoff-caliber proper now so the strain is on to alter that. Their path isn’t getting any simpler, particularly with groups just like the Capitals making early noise within the East.
Chytil’s a spark on the Rangers’ third-line
With Filip Chytil, there tends to be a qualifier — if he’s wholesome. Accidents condensed his 2023-24 to simply ten regular-season video games and 6 playoff appearances. Whereas the Rangers had a succesful 3C in Alex Wennberg in his absence final yr, that model of the third line simply didn’t convert on their puck possession usually sufficient.
That has been a stark distinction with Chytil again. The middle provides extra pop to the Rangers’ center six between his capability to generate scoring probabilities in transition and his puck-moving ability. With Will Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko on his wings, the Rangers have earned about 65 p.c of anticipated targets and are outscoring opponents 9-0. That line has been rewarded for his or her efforts with extra ice time than Mika Zibanejad’s within the final 4 video games.
If Chytil can keep wholesome, the Rangers’ depth may change into an actual benefit.
The Golden Knights’ high-octane scoring
Heading into the yr, there have been some reliable questions on Vegas’ ahead group. All of the upgrades at middle and on protection have come at the price of their winger depth, and uncertainty round Mark Stone solely compounded these potential points.
Scoring a league-high 47 targets by 10 video games is one approach to quiet a few of these considerations. With a top-five energy play and probably the most potent five-on-five scoring, the Golden Knights have gotten off to one of many hottest begins within the league.
Vegas is changing on a league-high 14.6 p.c of its probabilities at five-on-five, which has helped them rating virtually 14 targets above expectation. That’s fueled an increase up the standings in October however isn’t a recipe for long-term success.
The Golden Knights ought to be capable to pad their numbers extra towards upcoming opponents with points in web, like Utah and Edmonton. But when Vegas needs to remain on the high long-term, they’ll want extra oomph behind their ending. Their anticipated purpose era has trended up over their final couple of video games; now they must maintain it.
Karlsson’s disastrous begin
Goaltending is an issue in Pittsburgh, but it surely’s not all that’s holding them again. The Penguins are one of many worst defensive groups within the league at five-on-five.
Erik Karlsson has by no means been an elite shutdown defenseman; his strengths have all the time come from his capability to drive play from the again finish. However this yr, the Penguins are giving up a lot in his minutes that it’s dragging every little thing down. The highs, like his efficiency towards Detroit and Montreal, stand out. However the lows, like his play towards New York, Buffalo and most lately Vancouver, have been an outright catastrophe.
In 17:16 of five-on-five motion towards the Canucks, the Penguins created little and gave up a ton with Karlsson on the ice. Vancouver dominated these minutes with a 78 p.c anticipated purpose fee. Errors and misplays value the Penguins, who have been outscored 3-1 with considered one of their high defensemen on the ice.
These defensive breakdowns have change into the norm in Pittsburgh this season regardless of who he’s paired with, whether or not it’s his mainstay companion from final yr, Marcus Pettersson, or Matt Grzelyck. Whereas there are plenty of defensive points outdoors of Karlsson’s minutes, his are noteworthy as a result of he tends to share the ice with the Penguins’ greatest forwards. The Penguins’ high six can’t play to their strengths as a result of they’re spending a lot time in their very own zone.
Hagel and Cirelli are shutting down high competitors
With the Jake Guentzel signing, the Lightning have loaded up their high line. Because of this, Brandon Hagel’s shifted right into a mainstay second-line position with Anthony Cirelli to open the yr, and the 2 are thriving collectively.
The Lightning have rocked a 66.4 p.c anticipated purpose fee with Hagel and Cirelli on the ice at five-on-five and outscored opponents 7-3. It’s an encouraging begin for a staff that wants extra complementary scoring under their high line. It’s much more spectacular contemplating their hefty workload. Cirelli and Hagel are matched up towards their opponents’ high offensive threats, and so they’re containing them and driving play by the primary month of the season.
Rotating proper wingers hasn’t slowed this mix down, both. Nick Paul excelled there to open the season, however shifting him to the third line has allowed for extra lineup stability. Connor Geekie has been a match with Cirelli and Hagel to spherical out Tampa Bay’s high six.
Stars of the month
The Wild’s famous person has come into the season sizzling, which is strictly what this staff must stability out their defensive model. Minnesota stumbled by the early goings of final yr, and an enormous purpose was that Kaprizov didn’t fairly seem like Kaprizov. With seven multipoint video games to start out the season, he’s bringing the electrifying model this roster desperately wants.
The Blue Jackets’ high line of Yegor Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko and Monahan is prospering to start out the season. With 5 targets and 9 factors in eight video games, the middle is scoring at a career-high fee. And Columbus is dominating in his five-on-five minutes with 65 p.c of the anticipated purpose share and a 10-5 edge in scoring.
Lukáš Dostál
The third star is all the time the toughest. Quinn Hughes is shining in Vancouver, whereas Marchenko is crushing it in Columbus. Stone retains lighting up the scoresheet, Reinhart has helped energy the Panthers whereas shorthanded and Oettinger has been wonderful in Dallas.
However this month, the honors must go to Dostál, who leads the league with 11.9 targets saved above anticipated. The Ducks have gone 4-2-1 in his seven begins, successful 9 of a possible 14 factors — and far of that’s due to their goaltender, who continues to place up high quality begin after high quality begin regardless of his staff bleeding scoring probabilities.
Information collected previous to Wednesday’s matchups through Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story depends on shot-based metrics; here’s a primer on these numbers.
(Prime picture of Lukas Dostal: Bruce Bennett / Getty Photographs)
