We’re over a month into the NHL season, simply days away from U.S. Thanksgiving. Are you able to admit you had been flawed?
I’m. When it got here to predicting how the 2024-25 season would play out, I used to be very flawed. I virtually all the time am. I’m unhealthy at this, and you shouldn’t belief something I say about something.
However you’re unhealthy at it too, and I’ve proof. For the previous few years, we’ve had the prediction contest as a everlasting document of the place the overall preseason consensus was amongst hockey followers, or no less than my readers. And one month into this season … woof, you guys are wanting unhealthy.
So earlier than we get to my rankings, which can be flawed, let’s humble the howling mob with a glance again at 5 key developments you completely whiffed on.
Bonus 5: Your worst calls (thus far) from the reader prediction contest
5. You had been all in on the Oilers and Avalanche juggernauts — Not solely had been the Oilers your prime decide for groups that may make the playoffs, however they had been an almost unanimous alternative. Six weeks in, they’ve spent a lot of the season preventing for his or her wild-card lives. One of many groups they’re battling with is the Avalanche, who had been your fifth most secure workforce and are at the moment on the surface wanting in. Extra on them in a bit.
4. You had the Wild as the final word also-ran — They’re sitting with one of many league’s finest data proper now, and really feel like they have already got a postseason spot locked up. Not considered one of you — as in zero — had them as considered one of your playoff picks. However over half of you had been completely happy to rank them as essentially the most middling workforce within the league, leaving them because the runaway chief in that class.
3. You thought Sam Reinhart was a one-year marvel — We’ve mentioned this before, however it’s value repeating. When it got here to the bonus query — title somebody apart from Auston Matthews who’ll get to 50 targets — solely two of you picked Reinhart, though he was coming off a 57-goal season. At this time, he’s on tempo for 59. In case you had been questioning, these two measly votes left him tied for fifteenth within the league with two different guys on tempo for 50: Cole Caufield and Kyle Connor.
2. You had near zero religion within the Jets — Final yr’s Jets completed 52-24-6, the very same document because the eventual champion Florida Panthers. However when it got here time to face behind them this yr, solely six out of roughly 1,200 of you probably did. I didn’t have a query asking you which of them workforce would publish the most effective 15-game begin in NHL historical past, however I’m guessing you wouldn’t have the Jets very excessive in that one both.
1. You didn’t consider within the Capitals — The Caps, who I’ll remind you had been a playoff workforce a yr in the past and who obtained higher over the offseason, had been nonetheless a borderline postseason decide heading into the season. So, what number of of you had been assured they’d be again?
Zero. No, actually. Not considered one of you picked the Capitals as a playoff workforce. That put them one spot behind the Carolina Panthers, who’re an extended shot to make the NHL playoffs as a result of they’re a soccer workforce. Extra of you had confidence within the Sabres, Blues and Penguins than in slow-starting Alexander Ovechkin and crew.
We’re all so dumb, and no one can predict something. Anyway, on to the rankings that are supposed to predict issues …
Street to the Cup
The 5 groups with the most effective possibilities of successful the Stanley Cup.
This has the potential to be excellent information for a lot of the groups that seem on this half of the rankings:
Elliotte Friedman reporting on the published tonight that subsequent yr's wage cap may truly be pushed effectively over the 5% progress restrict as much as as a lot as $95 to $97 million.
Proper now per the CBA, it's set to go to $92.4 million, however with revenues so excessive, it is sensible to bump it larger.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 8:58 PM
5. Vegas Golden Knights (12-4-1, +24 true targets differential*) — The Rangers have an analogous document, however there appears to be extra negativity popping out from followers and media in New York than you’d count on and it’s spooking me a little bit. So I’m going to nudge the Rangers out of the High 5 for the primary time this season and return to the Knights, if solely as a result of I attempt to have every division represented they usually’re holding sturdy on prime of the Pacific.
(Talking of Pacific contenders, finest needs to Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse as he recovers from a scary head shot from Ryan Reaves. The Leafs enforcer will get a well-deserved five games from the Division of Participant Security.)
4. Dallas Stars (11-5-0, +18) — Exhausting to argue with a 3-0 week that sees you hit the seven-goal mark twice. The shut win was essentially the most spectacular, although, a 2-1 assertion over the hard-charging Wild. They’ve obtained the Ducks and Sharks up subsequent at house, that means it’s both a simple 4 factors or the dreaded lure video games.
3. Winnipeg Jets (15-3-0, +31) — A two-game shedding streak wouldn’t be particularly newsworthy for a lot of groups. However when a mini streak triples your season loss whole, it’s truthful to marvel if the shine has come off the league’s finest early story. The excellent news is the losses got here in opposition to the Lightning and Panthers, so it’s not like they’re dropping video games to also-rans. The higher information is that they get an instantaneous rematch with the Panthers tomorrow evening, and an opportunity to nip any narratives within the bud.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (13-4-0, +27) — They largely preserve successful, at the same time as concerns about Frederik Andersen stay. Having third-string Spencer Martin present as much as shut out a high-scoring Senators workforce definitely helps.
1. Florida Panthers (12-5-1, +9) — Shutting out the Jets was a pleasant flex, however it additionally got here after back-to-back losses to the Devils, so all in all a blended week for the defending champs.
By the best way, shout out to the Devils for rating second within the league in factors and outdoors the highest 10 in factors proportion. Nothing fairly like increase a five-game cushion within the video games performed column earlier than we hit Thanksgiving.
*Targets differential with out counting shootout choices just like the NHL does for some motive.
Not ranked: Colorado Avalanche — A couple of weeks in the past I stated I had zero doubt they’d eventually make the playoffs. I stand by that. Let’s begin there.
However yeah, I’d in all probability dial the boldness down only a tad. As a result of the workforce that began the season fourth in our Cup contender rankings is struggling to carry down the fourth spot in their very own division. That might be a division with two of the highest data within the league plus the Stars, in case you forgot. Good luck climbing that mountain.
Friday evening’s loss to the Capitals dropped them to .500 in a league the place that’s not adequate to get near the playoffs. The loss snapped a three-game win streak that kicked off with a formidable win over the Hurricanes and had appeared to place them again on observe. Now they’re heading out on the highway for a troublesome four-game journey that features each Florida groups and a rematch with Washington.
Usually, that wouldn’t be a setup for optimism. However this hasn’t been a standard season in Colorado, the place wins and losses have often taken a again seat to simply having the ability to fill out a roster. The checklist of accidents and absences went from prolonged to ridiculous for a lot of the first month. However that’s altering now.
Evening and day distinction for #GoAvsGo.
Left was final evening. Proper was Nov. 2.
Plus, Ross Colton can be again in three weeks and Gabriel Landeskog rejoined for on-ice workforce exercise.@DailyFaceoff @DFOFantasy pic.twitter.com/pPMJUNJY8s
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) November 16, 2024
So that they’ll be positive. We expect. There’s nonetheless the matter of the goaltending and Alexandar Georgiev placing up 1983 Smythe Division backup numbers. And so they’ve already dug sufficient of a gap within the Central that even getting house ice goes to be an extended haul.
In fact, they didn’t have house ice final yr in opposition to the Jets, and that didn’t matter a lot as soon as they obtained rolling. That’s type of the place I’m at with the Avalanche proper now — they’re not going to win the Presidents’ Trophy, however they don’t have to, as a result of we all know this core can win a Cup so the main focus is on ensuring they’re nonetheless round when the actual video games begin. They are going to be. I’m fairly positive.
Till we get a greater sense of what the full-powered model of this workforce ought to seem like, the remainder of us can go away the game-to-game sweating to Colorado followers, and as an alternative sit again and luxuriate in a workforce that’s awfully enjoyable to observe. Nathan MacKinnon is main the scoring race, Cale Makar appears to be like just like the Norris favourite and Mikko Rantanen is chasing the Rocket Richard. And with goaltending that’s all the time on the verge of giving up 4 or 5, you’re virtually all the time in for one thing enjoyable.
Diehard Avs followers who had been anticipating a run for prime spot within the Central may be having barely much less enjoyable. Nevertheless it’s all good, so long as they make the playoffs. And for now, no less than, I nonetheless assume that’s a positive factor.
The underside 5
The 5 groups which can be headed towards lifeless final and the most effective lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
Good things right here on the fastest-rising prospect in each team’s system. That’s vital info for any fan base, however particularly so for those who’re used to seeing your workforce in consideration for considered one of this part’s spots.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets (6-9-2, -8) — They had been a pleasant early story, however it appears like actuality is catching up with a roster that simply isn’t gifted sufficient.
4. Anaheim Geese (6-8-2, -11) — That is the only finest hockey article you’ll learn all week that includes the phrase “ketchup splat” in the headline.
3. Montreal Canadiens (6-10-2, -19) — They wanted that win over the Blue Jackets, particularly with the Oilers and Knights up subsequent. The scoring stays delightfully unbalanced after Nick Suzuki, with Cole Caufield sitting with 12 targets and three assists whereas the following three gamers (Mike Matheson, Juraj Slafkovský and Lane Hutson) have mixed for 2 targets and 32 helpers.
2. San Jose Sharks (5-10-4, -19) — It was an 0-for-3 week, though two of these losses got here within the shootout in order that they’re pretend. I’m nonetheless shifting them out of the highest spot for the primary time all season, as a result of as unhealthy as they’ve been, they don’t have the all-falling-apart vibe of our subsequent workforce …
1. Chicago Blackhawks (6-11-1, -14) — I actually don’t get the Taylor Hall factor. The previous MVP has gone from unproductive winger on a foul workforce, which was unhappy sufficient, to outright healthy scratch. When the Hawks signed him, I figured there was an honest probability he could possibly be a productive possibility on the primary line, and the worst-case state of affairs was that they might flip him at a deadline for picks.
They nonetheless may, however now the storyline is extra about rehabbing his repute as one other season slips away. Laz pulls no punches right here:
GO DEEPER
Who’s to blame for Blackhawks’ abysmal offense? From the top down, just about everyone
Not ranked: St. Louis Blues — Let’s examine in with Blues followers. How’s it going, guys?
@DownGoesBrown I believe the Blues gotta be backside 5 in your weekend rankings subsequent week
— uhh (@kaudinosaur) November 13, 2024
That appears about proper. Can I get you to accept being this week’s “not ranked” workforce?
The Blues got here into the weekend driving a four-game shedding streak, together with an 8-1 blowout by the hands of the Capitals (their second 8-1 loss in two weeks) and an extra time loss to the Sabres. To make issues worse, they had been going through back-to-back video games in opposition to the Bruins and Hurricanes, two groups anticipated to be excellent this yr, considered one of whom truly is. The weekend began effectively sufficient, with a comeback win over Boston that sent the Bruins even further down the spiral. However final evening they had been again to the standard Blues as they watched the Hurricanes draw back to a 4-1 win.
That leaves the Blues sitting within the sixth spot within the Central, wanting up on the Jets, Wild, Stars and Avs, amongst others. That’s not nice for a workforce that apparently seen itself as a playoff contender. With Robert Thomas out and the hole rising each day, is the season already over in St. Louis?
It could possibly be. And possibly that wouldn’t even be the worst factor that would occur. Doug Armstrong didn’t precisely go all in on this roster, however you don’t use a number of provide sheets and signal a 39-year-old Ryan Suter since you’re rebuilding. That is an older workforce with a middling pipeline, and simply sufficient expertise and goaltending to hold across the playoff perimeter with out ever truly scaring anybody. The “caught within the center” warning signal on the dashboard has been flashing for some time now, and possibly falling out of the race completely by December can be the nudge the workforce wants to start out considering long-term.
It’s important to marvel how Armstrong would really feel about that, given he has this season and subsequent left as GM earlier than the succession plan to Alex Steen kicks in. Does he wish to spend his closing seasons constructing for the following era, or is that this all about chasing yet one more championship?
We’d not be removed from discovering out. This week brings an attention-grabbing pair of video games in opposition to the Wild and Sharks, which is mainly each ends of the present NHL success spectrum. In case you’re wanting to determine which finish you’re nearer to, that’s not a foul checkpoint.
(High picture of Jordan Binnington: James Guillory / Imagn Photos)
