It was a tough yr for certainly one of my favourite stats. Years in the past, when Elliotte Friedman launched his curse of November 1, I had the identical response that the majority followers appeared to: It didn’t make sense. Over a decade in the past, Friedman pointed out how uncommon it’s for a staff to be 4 factors out of the playoffs at the beginning of November and find yourself making it, however the outcomes felt mistaken. In any case, you can also make up 4 factors in two video games — doing it in 5 months must be simple. And but Friedman discovered that the failure fee was near 90 p.c.
So can any groups break the curse this yr? Sure. Two of them, and that’s it, as a result of solely two groups have been four points back as of Friday. These groups could be the Predators and Blackhawks, and yeah, I believe certainly one of them is a bit more prone to make the push than the opposite. However due to a late begin and Gary Bettman’s beloved leaguewide parity, virtually everyone seems to be shut sufficient to not panic but. (Within the East, no one was even two factors again when the brand new month started.)
OK, a lot for this yr’s early season curse narrative, at the least till U.S. Thanksgiving arrives and we will swap to that. However there are nonetheless lots of good groups outdoors the playoffs proper now, together with some all of us assumed would make it. So at present, I’m going to see if I can title 5 groups that wouldn’t be within the playoffs in the event that they began at present (based mostly on factors share), however which have a very good shot to be in when it issues.
That’s going to be more durable than it may have been, because the Oilers moved again right into a spot after final night time’s win and robbed me of a freebie. However we love a problem, so let’s do that from least to most confidence.
Bonus 5: Groups outdoors the playoffs which are most definitely to make it in April
5. Detroit Red Wings — I’m not particularly assured, which is why they’re the primary staff on the record. It’s been an uninspiring begin to the season for Steve Yzerman and the world’s most plodding rebuild. However with some winnable video games arising, and the Japanese race trying somewhat extra susceptible than anticipated, the Wings nonetheless have a powerful shot. (Checks Dom’s model forecast.) OK, nicely they’ve received a shot.
4. Utah Hockey Club — This one feels somewhat low-cost, since they have been holding down a spot up till the Oilers’ win final night time and are solely out based mostly on the regulation wins tiebreaker. I’m nonetheless not fully certain what to make of this staff, they usually haven’t seemed nice since that 3-0-0 begin that will have simply been a jolt of early adrenaline. They’re on a troublesome highway journey proper now and have some powerful matchups after they get again house. You already know what, I’m speaking myself out of this, let’s transfer on …
3. Nashville Predators — They’re 4-1-1 of their final six, in order that they’re already digging out of the early gap they discovered themselves in. It was a heck of a gap, although, and there’s loads of work left to do. I believe they get there, though I’m to see how they do in opposition to a surprisingly powerful Kings staff tonight.
2. Boston Bruins — I get that it’s unhealthy. I’ve learn Fluto’s dispatches from a season slipping away, blended in with the occasional benching. And I believe the potential for a window-slam of a season is actual. I simply don’t suppose it’s all that possible, even after a tough first month. I nonetheless suppose the Bruins get in, even when they’re technically behind the Senators for the ultimate Japanese spot based mostly on factors share. I even have a sinking feeling Boston followers is perhaps able to argue with me about that.
1. Colorado Avalanche — The straightforward name, proper? Sure, they’re nicely underneath .500 and looking out up at groups just like the Ducks and Blues. However with the just about ridiculous record of accidents they’re dealing with up entrance, it seems like something near treading water must be adequate for now. Don’t fall too far behind, get wholesome and be prepared when the video games really begin to matter. They’ll be wonderful, which implies I’m just about assured to get at the least certainly one of these proper.
Lacking six (!) of their high 9 or 10 forwards, the Avs lineup is extremely depleted. Rookies Kovalenko and Ivan, with a mixed 20 video games NHL expertise, will each be within the high six tonight in opposition to Tampa. https://t.co/WFpMmbYp5p
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) October 30, 2024
Which 5 present playoff groups will these outsiders be changing? I’ll go away that as an train for the reader, principally as a result of I don’t have to get dunked on by Capitals followers any greater than I have already got this week.
On to the rankings …
Street to the Cup
The 5 groups with the most effective possibilities of profitable the Stanley Cup.
As a little bit of a rulebook nerd, I discovered this piece on the evolution of officiating very attention-grabbing. However I believe we will all agree on the principle impression of the swap to a two-referee system: The refs now blatantly hate your favourite staff twice as a lot as they used to.
5. Vegas Golden Knights (8-3-1, +17 true targets differential*) — Uh oh, is the Vegas flu again? It is perhaps, because the Knights are 8-0 at house on the yr. Now they only want a highway win. They’ll get a pair of probabilities this week, as they go to Edmonton and Seattle.
4. Winnipeg Jets (11-1-0, +29) — Lots of you accused me of selecting final Monday to lastly pump the Jets’ tires solely as a result of they have been taking part in Toronto that night time, and that I used to be working some form of reverse jinx to summon a Leafs win. My reply to that’s (gestures at my total depressing life as a Leafs fan) yeah I can’t actually try this.
However sure, they did lastly lose, ending the streak and placing them susceptible to a hangover hunch. That didn’t occur, with spectacular take-care-of-business wins over the Wings and Blue Jackets earlier than yesterday’s comeback in opposition to the Lightning.
In the meantime, Murat has an replace on the less inspiring story off the ice.
3. New York Rangers (8-2-1, +20) — Good things from Arthur right here on the many big decisions looming for Chris Drury.
2. Dallas Stars (7-4-0, +7) — Our high two groups headed to Finland for a two-game sequence, which the Panthers swept. That’s sufficient to knock the Stars out of high spot for the primary time this yr, though it’s laborious to get too involved a couple of staff with the best goaltending in the league.
1. Florida Panthers (9-3-1, +7) — Talking of the Finland video games, so far as the native followers go, this will likely have been the spotlight:
*Targets differential with out counting shootout choices just like the NHL does for some purpose.
Not ranked: Minnesota Wild — I’m not fairly there but. Nevertheless it’s getting shut, proper?
The Wild have been one of many largest tales of the season’s first month, coming into the weekend sitting at a formidable 7-1-2 and staying proper behind the Jets for high spot within the Central. They’re hitting on all cylinders, with Kirill Kaprizov trying like an early Hart candidate, robust goaltending from Filip Gustavsson, Marco Rossi exhibiting indicators of a breakout yr and stable possession numbers that counsel this isn’t some random fluke. Oh, they usually did all that regardless of having an early seven-game highway journey dropped into the October schedule. They even broke out the ol’ two-puck trick play. Not unhealthy.
As Russo places it, they might have something special brewing. So it’s honest to ask: Why did the Jets push their manner into an early top-five spot, however not the Wild?
It’s shut, however I believe there are a couple of components. The Jets are coming off a 110-point season whereas the Wild missed the playoffs final yr, and whereas a few of that was as a result of accidents, it does make the Jets’ first month really feel considerably extra sustainable. The Wild are additionally taking pictures north of 13 p.c as a staff, which isn’t going to final. And whereas we don’t pay a ton of consideration to single-game outcomes — bear in mind, these are the long-term rankings — we will observe Winnipeg did win the one head-to-head matchup. It’s not a lot, however in case you suppose it’s a coin flip, possibly it helps.
All that apart, the Wild are definitely making a push, and it’s most likely time to start out taking them extra severely than most of us have been. Yesterday’s OT win over a mediocre Maple Leafs staff wasn’t probably the most spectacular win of the season, but it surely had a dramatic end that highlighted the ability of a wise defensive play.
However right here’s the extra essential level: With Kaprizov in his prime, some younger gamers already in key roles, a brand new coach in his first full season and the huge Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyout burden lastly coming virtually completely off the books subsequent yr, the Wild are beginning to seem like a long-term contender. And meaning it could be time to retire the jokes about them at all times being within the forgettable center and get used to a world by which they’re a powerhouse.
Not fairly but, although. I need to see it for a bit longer earlier than I give this staff the top-five bump. However we’re shut, which is one thing I can’t say I noticed coming heading into the yr.
The underside 5
The 5 groups which are headed towards lifeless final and the most effective lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
You have to be involved. Sure, even when your staff isn’t going to be on this part. They nonetheless have something to worry about.
5. Buffalo Sabres (4-7-1, -6) — The Flyers and Blue Jackets have each been adequate to at the least quickly vacate their spots, which means we have now room for a brand new staff. Sadly for the league’s longest-suffering fan base, that needs to be the Sabres, who’ve misplaced three straight in regulation and are beginning to generate some tough questions for GM Kevyn Adams. Subsequent up are the Senators, a staff that’s blown previous them on the best way to the Atlantic playoff hunt.
Ah nicely. No less than they appear to have lastly discovered a man who can make big saves.
4. Montreal Canadiens (4-7-1, -16) — Typically, the beat writers can say extra in 5 phrases than I may in a complete part:
On the Canadiens, and vomit. https://t.co/zQEEeSKE0Q
— Arpon Basu (@ArponBasu) November 1, 2024
In the meantime, the larger information popping out of the weekend was Noel Acciari’s debatable hit on Juraj Slafkovský and Arber Xhekaj’s response. It doesn’t sound just like the DoPS will take any motion, and we’ll await phrase on any accidents.
3. Anaheim Geese (4-5-2, -7) — They’ve solely received 4 of 11, however Lukáš Dostál is looking like the real deal.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (5-7-1, -5) — They earned a par of weekend wins, beating the Kings and Geese on the highway, though they misplaced to the Sharks. What number of groups this yr do you suppose will lose to everybody besides San Jose on their California journey?
1. San Jose Sharks (3-8-2, -17) — They’re scorching! Pink-hot, even. OK, so their win streak received snapped at three on Saturday, however we’re going to deal with the constructive right here, and progress is progress.
Not ranked: New York Islanders — The case for the Islanders as a 2024-25 playoff staff was a reasonably easy one. They’d made it final yr, so in concept, they only wanted to carry serve. And with Patrick Roy in his first full season as coach and Ilya Sorokin virtually sure to rebound from his first so-so season, the trail to enchancment was clear. Positive, they is perhaps somewhat previous and somewhat too costly, and there have been questions round what the offense may do. But when the playoffs have been the aim, it was proper there for the taking.
One month in and the outcomes have been blended. Yesterday’s loss to the Rangers drops them to 4-6-2 and was their fourth loss within the final 5. And the one win in that stretch was in opposition to the Sabres, so it barely counts. With Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech each out long run, things are looking bleak.
If there’s excellent news, it’s that Sorokin has been superb, possibly even adequate for Roy to provide him greater than a cut up of the begins with Semyon Varlamov. Nevertheless it hasn’t been sufficient to make up for an offense that was rating towards the very backside of the league even earlier than dropping Barzal.
They get an attention-grabbing matchup tomorrow with the Penguins, a staff that appeared to be in full crash-and-burn mode till working off a couple of wins this week after loading up the top line. The Penguins have been a kind of groups that was presupposed to be laying declare to the Islanders’ playoff spot. So have been the Senators, they usually’re up on Thursday. Heading into the season, this may need seemed like a main week for the Islanders to make a press release and defend their turf. Now, it’s extra like an opportunity to maintain the season from tipping towards early catastrophe.
(Photograph of the Colorado Avalanche: Matthew Stockman / Getty Photographs)
