We’re a month into the season, which looks like greater than sufficient time to look again on the offseason and use the good thing about hindsight to utterly shift our opinions of all the things that occurred.
You keep in mind the offseason, proper? The Predators had been the large winners, the Jets had been huge losers, the goalie carousel ended up with everybody in precisely the fitting spot and some groups would pay the worth after taking flight on making huge trades. After watching every staff play a dozen video games or so, we now know that we had been utterly unsuitable. We’re a lot smarter now.
Will we be utterly unsuitable once more, in barely other ways, a number of weeks from now? Nearly undoubtedly. However for now, let’s have a look again at the perfect and worst of what did (and didn’t) occur.
Bonus 5: Approach-too-early conclusions concerning the offseason
5. The Predators’ spending spree was a bust — We’ll begin with the straightforward one. Extra on the Predators down under, however yeah, they could not wish to dangle that “Offseason Champions” banner fairly but. And Nashville finally ends up instantly associated to our subsequent entry …
4. Being heartless can repay — The Golden Knights let a number of key gamers stroll. The Lightning noticed the most well-liked participant in franchise historical past depart with what certain seemed like a footprint on his again. All of us shook our heads and mumbled about how there’s simply no loyalty today, and the way each groups would certainly pay a worth for shedding their coronary heart and souls. Then each groups shrugged and received off to nice begins. The lesson: Loyalty is dangerous! Besides when it isn’t, which ends up in our subsequent level.
3. Generally, not making the large commerce is the fitting transfer — We went into the summer time pondering a number of names on expiring contracts must be moved. Two of the largest had been Martin Nečas and Nikolaj Ehlers, however neither ended up being dealt. Carolina re-signed Nečas whereas Winnipeg nonetheless has to determine the long-term plan for Ehlers, however for now, each groups are sitting close to the highest of the standings and should really feel like they made the fitting name. The jury’s nonetheless out on Mitch Marner and the core in Toronto, however you can make a case the established order is working there, too.
2. Supply sheets aren’t the tip of the world — Dylan Holloway has been fantastic and Philip Broberg was good earlier than getting harm. Way more importantly, the hockey gods haven’t seen match to smite Doug Armstrong and the Blues, and the league has but to rescind the franchise. And whereas the Oilers aren’t off to a terrific begin, they had been not less than capable of finding the energy to maintain taking part in, versus insisting on rejoining the WHA. Perhaps we may strive a number of of those subsequent summer time, too?
1. Goalies are simply bizarre — You probably have any capacity in any respect to foretell goaltending, please report back to the closest NHL entrance workplace to obtain your clean test. Up to now, the largest offseason goalie strikes have yielded very combined outcomes. Jacob Markström has been fantastic, whereas Linus Ullmark has simply been “good enough” and Darcy Kuemper has been OK, however none (to date) have reworked their franchise. Huge extensions for Jeremy Swayman and Juuse Saros aren’t paying off early, though Jake Oettinger seems nice. In the meantime, the largest offseason goalie story of the summer time was Igor Shesterkin, and we by no means did get a decision there.
So what have we realized? Nothing, actually, as a result of it’s the NHL. On to this week’s rankings …
Highway to the Cup
The 5 groups with the perfect possibilities of successful the Stanley Cup.
Anthony Stolarz has been single-handedly preserving the Maple Leafs in video games recently. Actually, on Friday evening.
5. Dallas Stars (8-5-0, +6 true targets differential*) — They received an early prove-it matchup with the Jets on Saturday, and all they proved was that Winnipeg is the division’s greatest staff proper now. In additional encouraging information, they’ve apparently emerged as the clear Cup favorite amongst The Athletic’s hockey crew (or not less than they had been when voting happened earlier within the week).
4. New York Rangers (9-3-1, +19) — Kevin Weekes certain appeared to be hinting that a Shesterkin deal was close final week, however to date, nothing official. It’s potential they’re nonetheless nailing down the ultimate particulars. It’s additionally potential “he will get shelled by the Sabres after which his backup will get a shutout” doesn’t really feel like the fitting second to announce a record-breaking contract. Both manner, you’ll discover that is the primary time this season the Rangers aren’t our top-ranked staff within the Metro, so I’ll remind you that the distinction between third and fourth on a listing like this isn’t all that vast.
3. Carolina Hurricanes (10-3-0, +20) — They most likely ought to have been in final week’s rankings. There isn’t a lot doubt about this week, even with the Avs snapping their eight-game win streak. The Hurricanes are in, the Golden Knights are out and people two groups occur to fulfill tonight in Vegas to determine all of it out. And in case you’re questioning, the primary Rangers/Hurricanes recreation of the season doesn’t arrive till the tip of the month.
2. Winnipeg Jets (14-1-0, +36) — They now personal the perfect begin in NHL historical past by means of 15 video games, which is type of an arbitrary endpoint however nonetheless spectacular. Way more importantly, the mantra recreation is on level.
That is nice.
Winnipeg followers are so ECW. https://t.co/NG7DOWnctX
— Jeff Marek (@JeffMarek) November 9, 2024
This week brings one other likelihood to silence any doubters, with the Rangers and Lightning after which a Panthers back-to-back showdown on the slate.
1. Florida Panthers (11-3-1, +11) — They’ve gained seven straight on two continents, and now get the Devils in a enjoyable back-to-back. However the primary occasion begins on the weekend with that pair in opposition to the Jets. By the best way, would this be a great time to remind everybody that none of you believed in Sam Reinhart?
*Objectives differential with out counting shootout selections just like the NHL does for some motive.
Not ranked: Vancouver Canucks — What a bizarre season to date.
If you happen to had been the form of one that by no means watched this staff and was solely vaguely conscious of them based mostly on occasional snippets you overheard — which is to say, an Japanese-based sportswriter, am I proper Vancouver? — you then’d most likely assume they had been a catastrophe.
Thatcher Demko is harm and nonetheless hasn’t performed. Elias Pettersson has struggled by means of the primary month of a $93 million extension. Brock Boeser simply received knocked out of the lineup by an affordable shot. They began 0-3, received steamrolled by the Devils on residence ice a number of weeks in the past and received smoked by the Oilers over the weekend. What a large number!
Additionally, they’re 7-3-3 and comfortably holding down a playoff spot.
So certain, a bizarre 12 months, and I’m not utterly certain what to make of it. There’s definitely room for optimism, with Quinn Hughes selecting up the place he left off final 12 months and Demko now practising and seemingly on his manner again. Even Pettersson has seemed higher recently, and scored a pleasant objective on Saturday.
The optimist’s view, if there may be such a factor amongst Canucks followers, is that they’ve had loads go unsuitable and their file remains to be fairly good. The pessimist may look just a little nearer and level out that their wins have principally come in opposition to some very dangerous groups, together with the Hawks, Flyers, Penguins, Ducks and Sharks. Then once more, in addition they beat the Panthers, so who is aware of?
No actually, who is aware of? For now, we’re speaking about them within the prime part, in order that’s good. However I’m genuinely curious the place Canucks followers are at proper now. Please meet me within the feedback and let me know the way you are feeling concerning the first month. Is that this a great staff that survived some severe hurdles? A paper tiger that pads its win whole in opposition to the league’s weaklings? One thing in between? Assist me out, Vancouver followers.
The underside 5
The 5 groups which might be headed towards useless final and the perfect lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
Are you searching for a horrible play or a superb one? How about each …
(Please don’t ask a Blues fan what the ultimate rating ended up being.)
5. Philadelphia Flyers (5-8-2, -16) — It took a complete month, however we lastly received the Matvei Michkov benching drama we had been all ready for. Good outdated John Tortorella, blowing his stack over some minor mistake and fracturing the connection with the franchise’s most essential younger participant. Or perhaps not, as Kevin explains, however by no means let actuality get in the best way of a great narrative.
4. Anaheim Geese (5-7-2, -12) — John Gibson is again, beginning final evening’s win over Columbus and looking out sharp. That would ultimately result in some model of a goaltending controversy given how good Lukáš Dostál has seemed, however for now, it offers the Geese a lift.
3. Chicago Blackhawks (6-9-1, -10) — One thing I didn’t understand till I learn Mark and Scott’s latest: Connor Bedard went into the weekend ranked second within the league in five-on-five scoring possibilities, trailing solely Auston Matthews. My solely affordable conclusion from this quantity is that scoring possibilities don’t assist gamers rating targets.
2. Montreal Canadiens (4-9-2, -22) — I believed any discuss of even hovering across the playoff race was overly optimistic, however I’ll admit I didn’t see it getting “proper there with the Sharks” dangerous. Arpon’s column might be a tricky learn for Habs followers, however it’s a clear-eyed take that’s worth your time.
1. San Jose Sharks (5-9-2, -18) — Mackenzie Blackwood revenge recreation! Once in a while, you’ll see a 1-0 recreation that’s extra thrilling than a high-scoring shootout. Final evening was, uh, not that recreation. However when you’re the rebuilding Sharks, you’ll take a shutout win over a Cup contender any day. And as for Blackwood shutting out his former teammates with 44 saves in an upset no person may have seen coming, nicely, see level No. 1 from this week’s Bonus 5.
Not ranked: Nashville Predators — We featured the Predators on this part a number of weeks in the past, when they shared the slot with the struggling Red Wings. Sometimes, I don’t prefer to convey groups again to the land of the “not ranked” — I’d desire to make use of these spots to tour across the league and hit as many groups as potential. However I’m unsure I’ve a selection in the case of the Predators, as a result of what we assumed was a sluggish begin is changing into one thing way more, and far worse.
So let’s simply drop the query right here: Is the season already misplaced in Nashville?
They’re sitting at simply 5-9-1 after Saturday’s win over Utah, leaving them final within the Central. And whereas it’s hardly their greatest concern proper now, a staff that had ideas of creating a push for a division title is already 17 factors again of prime spot. In early November.
What’s gone unsuitable? A greater query is perhaps what hasn’t. Just about something that will have generated preseason optimism has turned out to be a dud. Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault are each having sluggish begins after getting practically $60 million as UFAs. Newly prolonged Juuse Saros hasn’t been the issue but additionally hasn’t seemed just like the Vezina candidate you’re hoping for once you commit $62 million and commerce your blue-chip goalie of the long run. Andrew Brunette doesn’t appear to have any solutions. They’re twenty fourth in targets scored and twenty ninth in targets in opposition to, which provides as much as a differential in Sharks/Habs territory.
It’s a catastrophe. Or is it?
It’s not all dangerous. In contrast to a variety of struggling groups, the particular groups have been fantastic. They’re moderately wholesome, which is healthier than the choice even because it removes an excuse. The underlying numbers are OK, and when you keep in mind your 2014 analytics arguments you already know their 94.8 PDO means they’re higher than you assume. They seemed good in opposition to Utah. And the schedule has been robust, serving up playoff contenders nearly each evening.
However the Predators are presupposed to be playoff contenders, too, on the very least. They’re not near that now, and as everyone knows, it will get late early within the NHL. So what does Barry Trotz do now? You don’t signal a bunch of 30-somethings to long-term contracts and commerce away your greatest prospect since you’re prepared to shrug off a misplaced season.
A training change seems like a panic transfer given Brunette is simply in 12 months 2. However with a two-time Jack Adams winner within the entrance workplace able to take over, even when solely as a short-term fact-finding mission, it feels believable. Perhaps Trotz can discover a vital commerce, whilst we’re advised that’s inconceivable in at the moment’s league. Perhaps he actually does attempt to scrap the entire thing and rebuild, which is the trail he recommended in a controversial radio spot this week (though Elliotte Friedman makes a great case that that’s not really an option).
Or perhaps you simply wait and hope. With Colorado and Edmonton up subsequent to kick off a five-game highway journey, issues may get even additional out of hand shortly in Nashville. If issues don’t flip round shortly, the subsequent time we speak about them within the Backside 5 part, it gained’t be as a “not ranked” staff.
Lastly, let’s finish this week’s column with a shoutout to a pair of sportswriting legends: Scott Burnside, honored by the Hockey Hall of Fame with the Elmer Ferguson Memorial Award, and Eric Duhatschek, who announced his retirement in a farewell column. Two nice writers, and two nice guys, particularly when it got here to serving to out youthful writers. Thanks for all the things, gents, and luxuriate in these well-earned accolades.
(Picture of Steven Stamkos: Mike Carlson / Getty Pictures)
