It’s the timing that’s so extraordinary right here.
After all of the instances the Toronto Maple Leafs had potential cause and the power to maneuver on from Mitch Marner, that now — three quarters of the way in which by way of this season, the ultimate one in his contract, and one which’s seen him climb into the franchise’s top-five main scorers — is after they had been lastly prepared to take action, or attempt anyway, is stunning.
In keeping with reporting from The Athletic’s Chris Johnston, the Leafs, unable to return to phrases on an extension with Marner, mentioned a commerce that will have despatched him to Carolina in trade for Mikko Rantanen.
It didn’t occur, clearly, as Marner — who possesses a no-movement clause — selected to stay in Toronto.
That it was even broached is exceptional. It speaks to the uncommon and maybe sudden alternative to snag a participant like Rantanen if the staff couldn’t get its final want in extending Marner.
However it might additionally appear to talk to the entrance workplace’s frustration on the state of contract talks and, maybe, a associated concern that Marner may stroll in free company.
It is going to undoubtedly add one other layer of drama to an already high-stakes Leafs season.
The Leafs’ longstanding want to hold on to their star winger, by way of good instances and dangerous, led them down this street of shedding any and all leverage to Marner and his feisty agent, Darren Ferris. And now, to the likelihood that he may select to go away as a free agent this summer season.
The lack of management, to the Leafs’ being on this precarious place, actually dates again practically two years.
If there was ever a time to vary course with Marner, to maneuver on, or ponder shifting on, it was then, after the conclusion of the 2022-23 season within the weeks earlier than his no-movement clause kicked in on July 1.
At that time, the Leafs might have dealt Marner anyplace they needed and might need fetched a good return given Marner’s celebrity skill-set and the 2 years remaining on his contract.
After all, there was lots occurring. An organizational earthquake shook the town that spring when staff president Brendan Shanahan abruptly fired then-GM Kyle Dubas within the midst of contract negotiations (and an obvious energy wrestle), which left the staff looking for a GM weeks earlier than Marner gained full management over his scenario.
Brad Treliving took over as GM on Could 31, which meant he had a month or so to behave.
In his first month on the job, GM Brad Treliving confronted a troublesome resolution on Marner. (Dan Hamilton / USA In the present day Community by way of Imagn Photographs)
Nonetheless time, that’s.
However whereas Dubas had signalled a willingness to maneuver off one of many staff’s stars days earlier than his exit, Treliving, like Shanahan, appeared extra resigned to the established order.
The brand new Leafs GM had simply arrived from a Flames group that was perennially looking for extra star energy. Treliving hadn’t been a firsthand witness to the repeated playoff failures that included Marner, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly.
He had not one of the scars of his predecessor.
Shanahan had been there by way of all of it, after all. However he had lengthy believed within the stars he had helped acquire and develop. With sufficient alternatives, they’d ultimately come by way of.
So the Leafs, as they’d in earlier years, opted to face pat. They nonetheless believed in Marner, together with the others, and held onto him.
It got here with a price: surrendering full management of Marner’s future to Marner and Ferris for the subsequent two seasons. Not solely might Marner not be dealt with out his permission, however the one technique to his subsequent contract was by way of Ferris, a notoriously tough negotiator who now had the benefit of realizing the Leafs both needed to conform to his phrases or threat watching Marner stroll for nothing in the summertime of 2025.
Ferris gained extra leverage on the finish of January this yr when the NHL and NHLPA introduced dramatically rising wage cap projections for the 2025-26, 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons.
All of the sudden, there was much more cash for groups to spend, extra money for Marner to fetch because the No. 1 or No. 2 free agent in the marketplace.
The challenges of coping with Ferris shouldn’t have been a shock.
Shanahan was there as Marner’s second NHL contract was being negotiated, when Ferris told The Toronto Star in early 2019 that Marner was being low-balled in these talks on the day that Matthews signed his new five-year deal. It took the entrance workplace, then led by Dubas and Shanahan, backing down a day into coaching camp for a deal to get finished — a deal that was shorter (six years) and pricier ($10.9 million cap hit) than was preferrred for the Leafs.
In hindsight, the Leafs most likely ought to have realized one thing about Marner in all that as effectively. That he was prepared to play hardball. That he was going to maximise his earnings. That hometown reductions weren’t going to be a factor for him. That he cared about how his contract’s AAV stacked up towards Matthews and the opposite Leafs stars.
There have been causes for the Leafs to consider moving on from Marner once more final offseason. Nevertheless, the complexities of such a transfer — Marner’s full say-so and unwillingness to maneuver above all — kept them from engaging within the chance.
It was solely when introduced a chance to switch a Marner they had been struggling to signal with a participant of Rantanen’s high quality, it appears, that the Leafs took this momentous step in significantly considering a commerce.
Rantanen’s résumé differs from Marner’s in that his playoff efficiency (1.25 factors per sport) exceeds his common season efficiency (1.09). He had 25 factors in 20 video games throughout Colorado’s Stanley Cup run in 2022. He’s larger than Marner and scores extra too, although he lacks Marner’s Selke Trophy-worthy defence.
That the Leafs can be open to swapping one for the opposite, then, makes quite a lot of sense — even when one thing had been to be misplaced within the course of (Marner’s chemistry with Matthews and defensive affect, amongst different issues).
An alternate, and probably awkward path, which noticed Matthew Knies (and different goodies) dealt for Rantanen, would have seen Rantanen and Marner taking part in collectively. In that state of affairs, the Leafs might need tried to increase Rantanen — and never Marner — on a long-term deal.
It’s curious that the Leafs might have believed there was an opportunity that Marner may really waive his no-movement clause in the midst of this season, given their unwillingness to wrestle with him on that chance final offseason. Marner’s affinity for enjoying at dwelling and the leverage he stood to realize later this summer season as a high free agent in a rising salary-cap surroundings make the transfer much more curious.
So, what now?
How will Marner react to all this? Will it inspire him? Lead him to new heights, within the postseason particularly, as he chases what often is the largest ever contract for an NHL winger? Or will it have the alternative impact, including an undercurrent of unease round him and the staff?
MITCH MARNER HOW ARE YA?! 💥 pic.twitter.com/2AQaAUQJuP
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 9, 2025
Marner pumped in two objectives in his first sport after the deadline and said afterward that he was “right here to play hockey with this staff.” He declined to debate the proposed commerce or his contract scenario.
That is new territory for Marner to confront with the one NHL staff he’s ever recognized: Requested if he would take into account leaving, basically, with 20 video games left within the common season, all this by the entrance workplace of a staff making an attempt to win its first Stanley Cup in practically 60 years.
“I wish to play with this staff,” Marner mentioned Saturday night time.
It was his resolution to make. He had all of the playing cards.
(High picture: Bruce Bennett / Getty Photographs)
