Within the NHL, contracts matter. For higher or worse, each participant is judged based mostly on the cash he makes and whether or not he’s well worth the value.
This piece is concerning the gamers who aren’t well worth the cash — the worst offers within the league. It’s if you ask your self, “How is that this man making that a lot?” however in a nasty approach.
There are a variety of player-friendly offers on the market. In keeping with every participant’s projected worth over the rest of their offers, these are the league’s 10 worst contracts.
The purpose right here is to grade contracts empirically with the identical context being utilized to every participant throughout the league: how a lot worth does every participant deliver to the desk per yr and over the lifetime of the contract? The way in which that’s measured comes from evaluating a participant’s Internet Ranking and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract.
What gamers have already accomplished holds no benefit; that is concerning the future worth of the take care of age effects based mostly on participant comps taken into consideration whereas accounting for anticipated wage development. Contract clauses and bonus construction are essential, however not thought of with this evaluation. Gamers on LTIR weren’t thought of.
1. Jonathan Huberdeau
Contract: $10.5M x six years
Surplus Worth: -$32M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 1 p.c
It’s tough to not really feel unhealthy for Jonathan Huberdeau at this level. Instantly after he was moved, his former staff went on to a few straight Stanley Cup finals with back-to-back wins — all whereas he languishes on a Flames staff with minimal upside. It’s a troublesome beat for the previous famous person. He’s spent the final two seasons struggling to stay up to an enormous cap hit, one which expects a stage of stardom that he now not seems able to reaching.
At $10.5 million, the expectation for Huberdeau is a Internet Ranking of plus-12.6 for the 2025-26 season. That’s 8.5 targets above what he’s projected to ship subsequent yr. Whereas it’s not unimaginable that Huberdeau can bounce again towards a high-end first-line stage, it is rather unlikely. Particularly with Calgary, a staff devoid of a lot succesful offensive assist.
The issue isn’t simply the cap hit, but additionally the time period. There are nonetheless six years remaining on Huberdeau’s deal and whereas that offers him numerous runway to mount a turnaround, the extra seemingly situation is that the 32-year-old’s recreation solely degrades additional. For now, Huberdeau remains to be a strong top-six possibility value over $6 million. In Yr 4 and past, when Huberdeau is 35 or older, nonetheless, his worth is anticipated to take a flip for the more serious.
It wasn’t alleged to be like this and Huberdeau’s immense drop-off stays mystifying. Whereas his deal regarded just a little expensive on the time (his market worth was $9.9 million) and there was a very good likelihood he wouldn’t discover the identical success away from Florida, the diploma to which he fell off was nonetheless laborious to think about.
Huberdeau remains to be a very good participant. And in the precise scenario, it’s doable he can nonetheless be a fantastic participant. Nonetheless, it’s unlikely he’ll ever be a $10.5 million participant once more. For now, he’s nowhere shut and, for the second straight yr, carries the league’s worst contract in consequence.
2. Ivan Provorov
Contract: $8.5M x seven years
Surplus Worth: -$33M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 3 p.c
It ought to come as no shock that Ivan Provorov’s freshly inked deal lands right here, contemplating what I already wrote about it when it was signed. Provorov is a effective defenseman, however his new deal is simply approach an excessive amount of and approach too lengthy for what he at present brings to the desk and the way he seemingly ages. Provorov had all of the leverage and used it to his full benefit, instantly netting one of many league’s most player-friendly offers.
Even in a rising cap world, $8.5 million will nonetheless seemingly be top-pair cash for the whole thing of Provorov’s deal. Although Provorov performs large minutes, the precise high quality of these minutes is nearer to second-pair caliber, with Provorov’s incapacity to drive play. And whereas Provorov ought to age higher than most at his age, his play will nonetheless seemingly decline additional over the again half of the deal. The probabilities of him out of the blue blossoming into a real top-pair possibility are slim, and the worth tag he managed to command is even more durable to fathom given the offers signed for Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson and Vladislav Gavrikov this summer time.
Columbus had numerous cap area and never numerous choices to interchange Provorov. From that perspective, it’s comprehensible why the Blue Jackets did what they felt like they needed to do — however that also doesn’t make this deal any simpler to swallow.
3. Chandler Stephenson
Contract: $6.3M x six years
Surplus Worth: -$29M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 0.2 p.c
One yr faraway from Seattle’s large guess on Chandler Stephenson, it’s nonetheless mystifying that the Kraken ever gave a 30-year-old declining middle $6.25 million per yr for the following seven years. One yr into the deal, nothing has modified on that entrance. It was a poor resolution on the time and that’s performed out on the ice.
A surface-level evaluation of Stephenson’s recreation would possibly view that sentiment as extremely unkind. Stephenson scored 51 factors final yr and was second on the staff in scoring. He was the staff’s prime faceoff man, led all forwards in ice-time taking part in almost 20 minutes per recreation and took on a few of the staff’s hardest matchups. On the floor, Stephenson looks like a effective participant. Dig deeper, although, and numerous Stephenson’s manufacturing rings hole. He’s an empty-calorie scorer.
For starters, a lot of his manufacturing hinges on the chance he wouldn’t get elsewhere. Of Stephenson’s 51 factors, 18 had been because of taking part in on the staff’s prime energy play, the place 11 had been secondary assists. At five-on-five, he scored simply 1.57 points-per-60, ninth amongst forwards and instantly behind current wage dump Andre Burakovsky. On a nasty staff, somebody has to attain, however it doesn’t imply they’re really including a lot to the staff’s backside line — they’re simply getting numerous minutes. It’s the Mikkel Boedker Rule.
The larger problem, although, is Stephenson’s five-on-five play. That was a crimson flag going into free company, the place it regarded like he would wrestle with out Mark Stone. Lo and behold, Stephenson managed only a 37 p.c xG final yr, seven proportion factors decrease than the subsequent-worst Kraken ahead. The hole between the thirteenth and 14th being that enormous is tough to understand, a matter of Stephenson being extremely porous with out the puck. With him on the ice, the Kraken gave up 0.45 extra xGA/60, the sixth-worst mark within the league and one that’s constant together with his final season in Vegas. Stephenson is a defensive black gap, and that confirmed up on the scoresheet, too, the place the Kraken gave up numerous targets in opposition to with him on the ice.
A few of that may be defined by utilization and easing Stephenson’s burden can enable the Kraken to squeeze extra juice out of his minutes. He’s not a nasty participant, however it’s extremely debatable whether or not he’s a real top-six participant anymore. Paying $6.25 million for a probable third-line middle isn’t very best. Even much less very best is Stephenson’s age and the time period remaining, the place issues are solely more likely to worsen from right here on out. His age profile doesn’t recommend he’ll age gracefully both.
At his price ticket, Stephenson must be a succesful second-line middle for the following six years for Seattle. In Yr 1, he already doesn’t appear to be one — even when he’s used like one.
4. Brady Skjei
Contract: $7M x six years
Surplus Worth: -$26M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 5 p.c
Final summer time, it regarded just like the Predators “gained” free company. One yr later, it seems like a disaster with Brady Skjei’s deal instantly wanting just like the worst of the bunch.
Whereas the Predators did overpay to nab three of the largest free brokers, it wasn’t almost to this present diploma on the time. Was Skjei a $7 million defenseman (for the following seven years) presently final summer time? Most likely not, however one thing near $5-6 million vary would’ve made sense (his market worth then was $5.7 million utilizing present strategies). Only one yr later, he’s not even value half of that.
That’s a results of a nightmare first season the place Skjei’s defensive recreation took a steep drop-off in Nashville. He struggled to deliver over the weather of his recreation that made him a defensive stalwart with Carolina, bleeding probabilities and targets in opposition to on a nightly foundation.
Whereas there’s an opportunity of a bounce-back, Skjei’s age is pretty prohibitive towards anticipating him to stay as much as the rest of his deal. The Predators want Skjei to be a strong No. 2/3, and whereas he’s removed from a nasty defender, he’s nearer to a No. 4 after final season. Even when Skjei’s recreation does make a return over the following yr or so, it’s the six years remaining that actually damage. Given his comps, it’s unlikely that Skjei can stay a difference-maker into his mid-30s — not after struggling to be that in Yr 1.
Issues can change if he can get again on observe in Yr 2, however it’s Years 5, 6 and seven that stay the scariest.
5. Nicolas Hague
Contract: $5.5M x 4 years
Surplus Worth: -$16M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 4 p.c
This contract looks like a tribute to the legend Bob McKenzie. “That’s per year.”
Has Nicolas Hague ever performed within the prime 4? No.
Has Nicolas Hague ever proven top-four upside? Not likely.
Did Nicolas Hague have leverage as a UFA? No.
Is Nicolas Hague a giant, large man? Sure.
And that’s all there’s to it. It appears there’s a rising development for groups to pay defensemen per inch moderately than per win recently, and that’s how Hague was paid to be a No. 3 defenseman regardless of a profession being a third-pair man. Is it doable he breaks out in a bigger function with the Predators? Completely, however that doesn’t imply he must be paid for the unlikelihood moderately than what he at present is.
I perceive that dimension is at a premium for defenders and that Hague is value greater than the market worth proven above due to it. But when a sensible staff resembling Vegas is eliminating him, there’s most likely a very good purpose.
Hague could possibly be the following Brenden Dillon, certainly one of his prime comps, who did turn out to be a strong second-pair defenseman on the identical age. However the extra seemingly situation is that Hague is what he’s all the time been: the following Andrej Sustr, Ben Harpur or Shane O’Brien. Greater doesn’t all the time imply higher — particularly not when a staff is paying a hefty value for it.
6. Sean Couturier
Contract: $7.8M x 5 years
Surplus Worth: -$17M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 6 p.c
When Sean Couturier signed his large extension, he was among the finest two-way facilities on this planet, a perennial Selke Trophy menace. Sadly, severe accidents took that away from him and although he’s been strong in his return to motion, Couturier remains to be not fairly on the stage vital for a $7.8 million participant.
That’s largely a results of his offensive recreation. Defensively, Couturier has remained a powerful shutdown drive, however what made him top-line materials earlier than his harm was his means to provide on prime of that. He’s gone from a 70-point choice to a 45-point man and that’s not going to chop it on the prime of the lineup. It’s the distinction between what Couturier must be so as to stay as much as his wage and what he’s now, which is a powerful shutdown second-line middle.
The larger bother lies in his age. At 33 (in December), with 5 years left, the clock is probably going ticking on Couturier’s top-six upside. Over the ultimate few years of his deal, it’s greater than seemingly that Couturier will slip additional into third-line territory. It’s doable that one other summer time to get well and the knowledge of Rick Tocchet can flip issues round, however it’ll take a big and surprising leap for Couturier to be a $7.8 million participant within the brief time period — not to mention for the rest of his deal.
7. Ryan Pulock
Contract: $6.2M x 5 years
Surplus Worth: -$16M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 8 p.c
On the peak of the newest Islanders period, Ryan Pulock was one half of one of many league’s finest shutdown pairs. Even when the manufacturing wasn’t there, Pulock regarded like a real top-pair stud together with his means to win tough matchups with Adam Pelech. It’s what made it look like an eight-year deal at $6.2 million could possibly be a fantastic deal. Right this moment, it seems something however.
In two of the final three seasons, the Islanders have struggled much more with Pulock on the ice at each ends of it. Final season was particularly dismal with a forty five p.c xG fee and a minus-0.49 relative xG fee per 60. The latter was one of many league’s worst marks. Pulock struggled significantly to assist the staff offensively in any approach and it’s what dropped his standing from succesful No. 2/3 to a low-end No. 4. If that.
There would possibly nonetheless be a bounce-back in retailer for Pulock, however at 30, final yr’s effort is likely to be an indication of issues to come back — and it could solely worsen. If that’s the case, there’s going to be an enormous hole between the worth he delivers on the ice and what he’s paid for.
8. Sam Bennett
Contract: $8.0M x eight years
Surplus Worth: -$20M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 20 p.c
Nobody who is aware of puck cares that Sam Bennett is on this record. His presence right here is merely a formality, one based mostly totally on his modest regular-season stats. Huge whoop — that’s not what he’s paid for.
Nobody cares after Bennett gained back-to-back Stanley Cup titles with Florida. Nobody cares after Bennett gained the Conn Smythe. When it issues most, Bennett is a winner, a big-game participant who elevates higher than nearly anybody else. He could also be a $5.5 million regular-season participant (a determine based mostly nearly totally on his age), however within the playoffs, he turns into one thing else and is quite a bit nearer to a $10.5 million participant. Think about $8 million splitting the distinction.
Most significantly, although, nobody cares that Bennett is right here inside the context of the Florida Panthers. The staff is already saving greater than sufficient on Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell, Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad that they’ll simply afford a luxurious contract resembling Bennett’s.
In a vacuum, $8 million for Bennett is an excessive amount of and so too is an eight-year time period that may take up most of his 30s. In a vacuum, this deal might not age very nicely and it’s on this record for that purpose (the primary 3-4 years are effective).
However we don’t stay in a vacuum. We stay in a world the place Bennett is a key championship piece for a franchise with dynastic hopes. That’s all that issues. Signed by one other staff, Bennett’s new deal would’ve been extremely dangerous. For the Panthers, and the Panthers solely, it’s a threat they’ll simply afford.
9. Cody Ceci
Contract: $4.5M x 4 years
Surplus Worth: -$14M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 1 p.c
I’m going to say one thing that will come throughout as controversial from somebody who primarily focuses on analytics: Cody Ceci bought a nasty rep all through most of his profession.
I do know, I do know, we’re all trying to find the guy who did this. However after diving additional into high quality of competitors knowledge through the analytics period, it’s turn out to be increasingly more obvious simply how a lot context was lacking from my earlier evaluation for lots of tough-minute defenders. Ceci actually qualifies.
Ceci wasn’t one of many league’s absolute worst defensemen; he was simply grossly overused. A No. 4 who’s performed like a No. 2 is usually going to appear to be a No. 6 — and that’s Ceci’s profession in a nutshell. After accounting for a way tough Ceci’s minutes have been all through his profession, he finally ends up grading out at a No. 4 for almost all of his profession. Some years have been uglier than that, sure, however for probably the most half, he’s simply been an over-utilized second-pair man.
That’s what the Kings are paying him to be and it’s doable Ceci could be that if he’s really used appropriately. However in his 30s, the mathematics has most likely modified for Ceci and that every one began with Edmonton’s run to the ultimate in 2024. Even after accounting for utilization, Ceci regarded a lot rougher than regular. That carried over into the 2024-25 season, the place he was predictably dismal on a nasty staff, but additionally struggled to search out top-four kind on a contender, too. The Stars used him an excessive amount of, sure, however you’d nonetheless anticipate stronger numbers even in that function.
The distinction for Ceci is that he’s gone from taking part in powerful minutes to a draw whereas being pretty worse than teammates, to dropping powerful minutes badly whereas being considerably worse than teammates. There’s a giant distinction between his 2023-24 season with the Oilers (54 p.c xG, minus-0.3 relative) to his 2024-25 work with the Stars (46 p.c xG, minus-0.5 relative).
That’s a dramatic falloff, one that means Ceci might be quite a bit nearer to third-pair territory as of late. The Kings are paying for what Ceci as soon as was and the Stars made the identical mistake buying and selling for him, anticipating the identical. It’s doable he makes a whole return to kind taking part in behind Drew Doughty, however the extra seemingly situation is that Ceci, at his age, is now not a participant who can deal with top-four minutes for any prolonged interval.
For the following 4 years, the Kings have a really costly third-pair defenseman.
10. Tanner Jeannot
Contract: $3.4M x 5 years
Surplus Worth: -$13M
Optimistic Worth Chance: 5 p.c
4 years in the past, Tanner Jeannot had 24 targets and 41 factors in 81 video games, a yr faraway from lighting up the AHL with 10 targets and 21 factors in 13 video games. Jeannot regarded like somebody who was going to be an issue for years to come back as a menacing energy ahead with a scoring contact.
Seems the issue was anticipating Jeannot to copy that ever once more, first fooling the Lightning out of a whole draft class and now the Bruins out of $17 million. Since that magical season, Jeannot has 20 targets and 45 factors over 198 video games, an eight-goal and 19-point tempo. Woof.
Jeannot is a replacement-level participant making third-line cash. Perhaps he lastly regains the spark that made his 2021-22 season so alluring, however the probabilities of that occuring really feel critically slim.
In a summer time full of bizarre offers because of groups having more cash than they knew what to do with, Jeannot’s deal was one of many weirdest.
Honorable Mentions: Will Borgen, Brad Marchand, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Montour, Mikael Granlund
(High picture of Jonathan Huberdeau and Ivan Provorov: Aaron Doster / Imagn Photos)
