Welcome again, NHL. And welcome again to the NHL weekend rankings.
When you’re a longtime reader who is aware of how this all works, be at liberty to skip forward to the Bonus 5. However in the event you’re new, or you can use a refresher, please learn the subsequent bit earlier than you rush off to yell at me within the feedback.
These rankings are a bit completely different from a number of the others you would possibly discover on the market. We’re not attempting to seize a snapshot of how issues stand within the league proper now; as a substitute, we’re extra fascinated by attempting to determine how issues will find yourself. The rankings listed here are primarily based on two questions: Who’s profitable the Cup, and who’s going to complete useless final? Easy questions, however onerous ones to get proper.
So how will we do it? The concept is to take it sluggish, ranging from one thing that appears like a consensus early on after which steadily adjusting primarily based on what’s occurring on the ice. The important thing there may be the “steadily” half; we attempt actually onerous to not overreact to a couple video games right here and there. Meaning a crew doesn’t shoot up the rankings simply because it has week or beats the defending champs. And we don’t hand over on a preseason favourite simply because it stumbles out of the gate. Maintain that thought.
This manner of issues isn’t higher or worse than the extra widespread strategy that different rankings take; it’s simply completely different. The benefit is that we’re much less prone to get tripped up by short-term flukes — for instance, we by no means had the Oilers as a bottom-five crew final 12 months, even after they had the worst report within the league in mid-November. The principle draw back is a few of these overreactions are enjoyable, and I get that it’s irritating whenever you see your crew ranked behind somebody they only beat the brakes off of. And yeah, generally we’re slightly behind on recognizing an necessary development. As my children will let you know, that’s not out of character for me.
In order that’s it. Assume long-term, react cautiously and don’t count on the rankings to swing wildly primarily based on what occurred within the final week. And yet one more factor: Every week will characteristic a high and backside 5, plus an additional crew in every part that didn’t make the listing however feels value mentioning. That crew isn’t essentially ranked sixth — if I needed to do this each week, it could simply be a high and backside six. They’re only a crew to speak about. For causes I’ve by no means fairly understood, this half actually appears to journey individuals up.
Oh, and we additionally prefer to throw in a bonus high 5 primarily based on no matter’s occurring. Like this one:
Bonus 5: Manner-too-early ideas about week one
5. Rangers followers actually don’t like Wes McCauley – You guys OK? It’s a protracted season and also you would possibly run into this man once more, perhaps tempo your self on the full-throated rage. (Additionally, sure, this was very clearly goaltender interference, don’t make me faucet the article.)
4. The Predators needs to be high quality – You’d prefer to have a greater begin after such a splashy offseason, and also you definitely would like to not be getting shut out by the Red Wings, however I’m not frightened concerning the Predators but. Nashville followers, you’re good, proper?
3. Alexander Ovechkin hasn’t scored all season – Per week into the schedule, he’s nonetheless sitting at zero targets. Is he cracking below the stress of the Gretzky targets chase? MY COLUMN. (My column is simply the “video games performed” column on the standings web page, which exhibits the Capitals have performed solely as soon as.)
2. Someone give Raphael Lavoie a hug – I imply, it’s nice to be wanted, I assume?
Raphael Lavoie’s wild waiver week continues
Oct. 6: Positioned on waivers by Edmonton
Oct. 7: Claimed on waivers by Vegas
Oct. 8: Positioned on waivers by Vegas
Oct. 9: Claimed on waivers by Edmonton
Oct. 10: Positioned on waivers by Edmonton
Oct. 11: Claimed on waivers by Vegas— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) October 11, 2024
1. The groups which might be presupposed to be good are all getting rocked – The NHL’s parity period marches on, because it didn’t take us very lengthy to get to the “on any given evening” portion of the schedule. With apologies for the spoilers, this week’s high 5 mixed for a report of 5-7-1, which is (runs numbers) not nice. Did we point out the entire thing about considering long-term, and never yelling at me within the feedback as a result of an 0-2 crew is within the high 5? We did. Will it assist? It is not going to.
It’s nice to have the NHL again. Let’s get to the rankings.
Highway to the Cup
The 5 groups with one of the best probabilities of profitable the Stanley Cup.
Belongings you don’t see typically: The tried and true “pull the goalie with two seconds left and an offensive faceoff” transfer really working.
Good previous Mark Scheifele, value each penny, he mentioned, partaking in slightly ironic foreshadowing for his subsequent submit.
5. New York Rangers (1-0-1, +5 true targets differential*) – Obtained at hand it to Igor Shesterkin, he definitely confirmed us either side of the goaltending coin in his first two begins. One 31-save shutout, one .769 outing in a loss. Ought to be fairly simple to determine tips on how to reset the goalie market on an eight-year deal right here guys, let’s get it carried out.
4. Colorado Avalanche (0-2-0, -6) – A pair of losses to begin the 12 months is mildly regarding. Alexandar Georgiev failing to make it out of both of his begins is considerably scarier. The Avs are one of many few groups left that also prefers to journey one starter as a lot as attainable, and it’s not like 24-year-old Justus Annunen has regarded nice in reduction. We’ll keep watch over this one, however for now, the Avalanche get the Islanders at house on Monday evening.
Additionally, this was fairly nice:
That is extraordinarily cool pic.twitter.com/q98ZfudzWu
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) October 13, 2024
3. Edmonton Oilers (0-3-0, -12) – After final 12 months, there’s no planet on which we’re going to panic concerning the Oilers having a sluggish begin. However yeah, it’s been extraordinarily sluggish. They received crushed by the Jets within the opener and misplaced to the lowly Blackhawks on Saturday earlier than dropping Sunday evening’s version of the Battle of Alberta. I get that a whole lot of you wish to dunk on them. However … no one thinks we’re really doing this, proper? All of us bear in mind what occurred final season. Let’s not get foolish.
2. Florida Panthers (1-2-0, -3) – The massive story in week one was the damage Aleksander Barkov suffered on opening evening in Ottawa. It regarded dangerous, to the extent that the official phrase of a two-to-three-week absence felt like excellent news. Shedding to the Sabres isn’t an important signal — extra on that in a second — however we may give the defending champs the advantage of the doubt with Barkov out and Spencer Knight making his first begin in over a 12 months.
1. Dallas Stars (3-0-0, +6) – Bless the Stars for being the one preseason favourite to truly appear like it by week one. You guys had shot on the high spot below any circumstances, however three wins made it a neater name. San Jose is up subsequent and is horrible, so let’s simply congratulate the Sharks upfront on the upset win.
*Objectives differential with out counting shootout selections just like the NHL does for some cause.
Not ranked: Utah Hockey Club – These guys are enjoyable!
Are they good? To this point, they completely are, though we’ll want greater than three video games earlier than we begin engraving any trophies. Nonetheless, you couldn’t ask for way more from a brand-new crew.
(A fast tangent: Sure, apparently they’re a brand-new crew, with the league treating them like an growth crew that simply occurs to have all the identical gamers that final 12 months’s Arizona Coyotes did. It’s bizarre. It’s additionally not how the league has dealt with earlier franchise strikes. And it implies that the reply to a query like “Which franchise did Teemu Selanne rating 76 targets for in 1992-93” is outwardly now “None of them.” The concept right here appears to be {that a} new Arizona crew will have the ability to recapture the Coyotes’ historical past in a number of years, though you wonder if new homeowners would really wish to be linked to a decidedly mediocre previous. However yeah, shout out to Connor Ingram for being an all-time franchise chief in video games began, with three.)
The massive story for this crew, aside from present in any respect, has been the offense. Utah scored a minimum of 5 targets in each recreation, with Clayton Keller averaging two factors per recreation and just lately prolonged Dylan Guenther scoring 5 targets. They’re additionally two-for-two in additional time. When it comes to pure leisure worth, there hasn’t been a greater crew to look at over the primary week.
An OT winner from captain Clayton Keller 🔥
🎥 @utahhockeyclub pic.twitter.com/l7umltM0wX
— The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) October 13, 2024
If we have been new at this, it could virtually be sufficient to have us questioning: Wait, has Utah determined that one of the best ways to seize a brand-new market is to play the type of thrilling, high-event hockey that makes the game irresistible? After all, the reply to that’s certainly no, and coach André Tourigny might be already onerous at work attempting to determine tips on how to flip these 6-5 wins into 2-1 outcomes. It’s completely OK so that you can hope that he fails, as a result of week one was fairly unbelievable.
For now, they’ve received check tonight in New Jersey within the season’s first battle of three-win groups. Welcome to the league, Utah followers, you’re getting a hell of a present to kick issues off.
The underside 5
The 5 groups which might be headed in the direction of useless final, and one of the best lottery odds for James Hagen, or maybe someone else.
We don’t see a whole lot of shock transactions early within the season, however we did get one Sunday — type of. The Pink Wings put Ville Husso on waivers, and groups have till Monday afternoon to place in a declare. The probably end result right here is that no one does, the Pink Wings get to work some early-season cap magic to ice a full roster and all of us transfer on. However the reality this even felt like an affordable possibility is a nasty signal for a $4.75 million goalie.
5. Montreal Canadiens (2-1-0, +2) – They’re mainly a placeholder right here, as they’ve regarded good to begin the season. As soon as we get a bit extra readability round a number of the groups which might be struggling, the Habs appear like they’ll be joyful at hand their spot over. Till then, let’s all watch Lane Hutson highlights and surprise how this child made it to the top of the second spherical.
4. Chicago Blackhawks (1-1-1, -1) – The Connor Bedard scoring title watch is on (5 factors in three video games), and so they’re apparently tired of losing. Neither of these info has prevented them from shedding two of their first three, however any time you’ll be able to beat the Oilers, that’s one thing to construct on.
3. Anaheim Ducks (1-1-0, 0) – A crew lacking John Gibson within the early going needed to be pleased with Lukáš Dostál’s first begin, a 30-save shutout in San Jose. Much less joyful: anybody who purchased tickets to see two rebuilding groups who haven’t been to the playoffs in 5 years mix for one purpose scored previous a goalie. Ah properly, a win’s a win.
2. Columbus Blue Jackets (1-1-0, +1) – They cut up a tricky mini street journey to begin the 12 months, and now get 4 straight and 7 of eight at house.
1. San Jose Sharks (0-1-1, -3) – Exhibit A within the “Sharks followers can’t have good issues” file: Macklin Celebrini selecting up a purpose and an help in his first recreation, adopted by an instantaneous journey to the injured reserve. That’s the short-term selection, that means he may very well be again in every week.
Not ranked: Buffalo Sabres – Let’s test in on Sabres followers a number of video games into the season and yep, this appears about proper.
@DownGoesBrown Sean, what are the probabilities Terry Pegula is attempting to kill off the Sabres fanbase so he can promote the crew with out feeling responsible?
— turtlehotline (@erjhunter) October 11, 2024
Granted, that was after three video games and earlier than the Panthers win, however you get the concept. The Sabres have kindly volunteered to be our week one instance of the entire “don’t overreact” idea that we love a lot in these rankings. We’re not going to take a crew that was projected to stay across the Atlantic playoff race and stuff them within the backside 5 simply primarily based on the primary week or two of the season. That’s not what we’re about. And that’s factor for the Sabres, as a result of if we have been going to view the primary few video games that method … hoo boy.
Let’s summarize. The Sabres had the distinction of beginning the season in Prague, with two video games towards the Devils that you simply solely type of paid consideration to as a result of season openers don’t actually resonate after they’re performed on a weekday afternoon. They lost both in regulation, scoring two targets alongside the best way, after which had a pleasant five-day break so their followers might freak out.
And certain, you can perceive, though it was simply two video games — in any case, whenever you’re using an NHL report 13-year playoff drought and didn’t really do all that much over the offseason apart from rent a coach you preferred within the ’90s. However you wouldn’t wish to fear an excessive amount of till they a minimum of received again to North America and performed a recreation on house ice.
That one got here on Thursday, and all appeared properly after they took a 1-0 lead into the third interval towards the Kings. All was not well. However an upset win over the depleted Panthers on Saturday downgraded this case from disaster to merely dangerous, and offers the Sabres one thing to construct on.
Subsequent comes a three-game street journey, albeit one that includes three very beatable groups in Pittsburgh, Columbus and Chicago. After that, properly, who is aware of? This already appears like a kind of years the place the temper goes to rise and fall game-to-game, if not period-to-period. That’s most likely not truthful to Kevyn Adams and crew, nevertheless it’s additionally unavoidable below the circumstances. You don’t need your followers to freak out whenever you lose, properly, perhaps attempt profitable one thing significant each 13 years or so.
(Prime photograph: Leila Devlin / Getty Photos)
