With free-agency season approaching, the large query on everybody’s thoughts comes right down to price: How a lot is every participant price?
Pricing gamers will be an inexact science, however is an especially worthy train that may save future complications. Last year, it might’ve saved a group from drastically overpaying every of the highest gamers accessible — Steven Stamkos, Elias Lindholm and Chandler Stephenson.
The identical will possible be true this yr with the wage cap rising shortly and groups attempting to determine the market’s new regular. Typically groups should take dangers out there to accumulate gamers, even at uncomfortable costs, nevertheless it’s nonetheless higher to know the place that bar needs to be set.
Our Chris Johnston has already delivered the top 50 players available. Now we’re going to estimate how good they’re and, maybe extra importantly, will likely be. That’s based mostly on every participant’s projected Net Rating over the period of an anticipated contract that takes under consideration how the player likely ages and future cap progress. Web Ranking isn’t infallible, nevertheless it serves as a powerful place to begin for dialogue.
Listed below are the highest wingers accessible this summer time.
Mitch Marner
One of the best participant accessible and the most effective gamers to ever hit free company, Mitch Marner goes to command some huge cash. He’s the most effective wingers on this planet, a participant able to scoring 100 factors whereas offering elite-level protection. Whereas his recreation does drop off loads offensively within the postseason, his defensive work steps up significantly. Marner is price large cash.
Marner ought to stay a star participant for the whole size of a max-term deal and the truthful worth for that’s roughly $12.5 million. Whether or not he takes much less or extra ought to inform us the place his priorities lie.
Nikolaj Ehlers
Of all of the high-end free brokers accessible, Nikolaj Ehlers possible has the perfect potential to create surplus worth, even into his 30s. The explanation for that’s he appears to be like completely on market as is, and he can doubtlessly supply extra in an even bigger function.
Ehlers’ utilization with the Jets has lengthy been perplexing with 2024-25 being his third straight season taking part in beneath 16 minutes. Ehlers has only one season (2021-22) the place he performed greater than 17 minutes per evening and one (2024-25) the place he’s been a fixture on the highest energy play. In each years, Ehlers scored at a close to 75-point tempo. That Ehlers couldn’t eclipse 16 minutes final season regardless of the PP1 promotion is very odd, a results of a five-on-five demotion. For no matter cause, Ehlers was Winnipeg’s ninth-most-used ahead at five-on-five behind gamers like Mason Appleton and Vladislav Namestnikov.
As a rule, you’re higher off trusting a coach’s instinct. It’s presumably a pink flag that it hasn’t been only one coach utilizing Ehlers much less; it’s been three (although Paul Maurice did give Ehlers extra ice time in his closing season with the Jets). I additionally perceive why a participant as chaotically inventive as Ehlers will be irritating on the high of the lineup.
Nonetheless, Ehlers is a participant who oozes ability on each shift and is likely one of the league’s most dynamic gamers with the puck. He’s a transition machine who can go end-to-end with ease and creates loads of offense in-zone. Few gamers enter and exit the zone higher than Ehlers does. It may be a harmful recreation to imagine a participant’s manufacturing can translate completely with extra minutes, however Ehlers has all of the makings of an elite driver, not a passenger. He makes issues occur on his personal. His microstat profile through Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones project is persistently glorious.
Ehlers appears to be like like a participant with untapped star potential, one who has scored over two factors per 60 in six straight seasons at five-on-five. Over the past three years specifically, he scores at 2.44 factors per 60, a mark that ranks seventeenth within the league, sandwiched between Elias Pettersson and Jesper Bratt. Is it so far-fetched to consider Ehlers might have the same offensive affect to these two — each ‘softer’ however dynamically expert gamers — in the same function?
That’s the upside wager with Ehlers, whose projected Web Ranking jumps three objectives if given the identical ice-time as Pettersson and Bratt (round 18 minutes). He’d be nearer to a 75-to-80 participant in that function along with his market worth leaping to $10 million per season over six years. That’s a giant win at Ehlers’ present anticipated price ticket.
It’s no assure that Ehlers’ worth interprets completely to an even bigger function, however his skillset means that there’s extra worth that may be unlocked by a group keen to belief him extra. Even when he can’t, $8 million is stable for what Ehlers already brings to the desk.
Brad Marchand
Over the past 5 seasons, Brad Marchand has been in main decline. His level tempo has fallen every year from 107 to 94 to 75 to 67 to 59. That’s a big drop, even when decline is to be anticipated at his age. The explanation many assume elite gamers age so nicely is just because they’ve extra room to fall. A 50-point drop for an elite participant nonetheless makes him first-line-caliber. A 50-point drop for a second-liner means he’s out of a job.
That’s the place issues at the moment stand for Marchand: an undoubtedly sturdy participant, even at 37, however one whose worth has fallen considerably from his peak. In 2024-25, Marchand was nonetheless first-line-caliber, nevertheless it appears to be like unlikely he stays at that degree for the following two to a few seasons. Except Marchand’s trajectory dramatically shifts — greater than doable for a once-elite participant — he’ll possible be nearer to a second-liner throughout his subsequent deal.
That’s nonetheless invaluable — simply not $8 million invaluable as some are at the moment throwing on the market. To ensure that Marchand to be price that worth, he must expertise precisely zero growing old over the following two seasons (a Web Ranking of round plus-seven) which is a troublesome wager to make on most 37-year-olds.
Marchand could be totally different, although, and it’s not arduous to see him charting his personal path because the highlight shifts away from him as a group’s focus. One cause Marchand’s decline in Boston had been so sharp is that he needed to be a high man, second-in-command to David Pastrnak. That’s a job he now not appears suited to. In Florida, Marchand has shifted to a complementary piece and his recreation has thrived consequently.
That’s been on full show through the playoffs, the place Marchand has turned again the clock with 20 factors in 22 video games and a few absurdly dominant five-on-five numbers. He’s been a matchup nightmare for opposing groups, resulting in a playoff Web Ranking of plus-13.7 per 82 video games. That’s according to the extent he was at three seasons in the past and a mark that’s simply price $8 million.
Marchand’s capacity to raise within the playoffs is just not new. In actual fact, it’s at all times been a persistently spectacular a part of his recreation. That’s price greater than his anticipated worth above and I might worth it equally to Sam Bennett’s playoff pedigree bonus (round $500-750K).
What’s totally different about Marchand’s state of affairs is what this yr’s playoffs counsel about how he ages: the projection above could also be too harsh. It’s one premised on Marchand’s trajectory being The Man. Shift his function and Marchand’s trajectory may even see a second wind. Not like some former elite gamers who might not do nicely with such a shift, Marchand’s recreation (and manner) seems well-tailored to help nice gamers. It’s greater than doable he retains extra worth than anticipated away from the highlight.
Marchand can be an costly complementary piece, little question, however a doubtlessly worthwhile one if he can sustain simply half of what he’s delivered with the Panthers.
Brock Boeser
Arguably some of the worrying free brokers in the marketplace. Brock Boeser’s potential price ticket of $8.5 million places him near core participant territory and his worth arguably skews nearer to complementary top-six scorer (and never almost to the identical diploma as Marchand). Apart from scoring, which does carry worth, Boeser is a little bit of an offensive passenger and doesn’t add a lot defensively. His age profile appears to be like a little bit scary, too.
On the proper worth, Boeser generally is a invaluable piece of a group’s scoring puzzle. However his present contract projections look far too expensive for what he brings to the desk.
Andrei Kuzmenko
One easy trick to get probably the most out of Andrei Kuzmenko: put him on a line with different good gamers.
That’s what made him a right away difference-maker with the Canucks till he was moved away from Elias Pettersson. And that’s precisely what we noticed initially with Calgary (on a line with Nazem Kadri) and after the commerce deadline with the Kings (on the highest line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe). Kuzmenko is a talented participant who thrives with different expert gamers and, on the entire, grades out as an honest second-line participant. On a three-year deal, that’s price $5 million.
There’s a concern with Kuzmenko that he wore out his welcome with each Vancouver and Calgary, struggling in his second seasons with every group. I’m undecided what to make of that, nevertheless it does counsel there could also be some baggage there that creates danger. When Kuzmenko is quiet, he’s actually quiet, and that may be irritating to observe. He doesn’t appear to reply nicely to these sluggish occasions both.
Kuzmenko is an actual increase or bust participant, however in the fitting state of affairs, he can spark offense within the high six — so long as a group can settle for his inconsistencies. His work with the Kings was intriguing sufficient to be a worthy gamble on a short-term deal.
Jonathan Drouin
How good is Jonathan Drouin? That’s troublesome to reply contemplating how dire his profession appeared two seasons in the past and the way efficient he appeared subsequent to Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado.
Did Drouin’s former Halifax teammate assist rejuvenate a dormant ability set, permitting Drouin to lastly attain his potential? Or did MacKinnon carry him fully to a peak that Drouin would have zero likelihood of reaching on his personal?
The reality might be someplace within the center. Drouin might be not the first-line expertise final yr’s 71-point tempo would counsel, given who he performed with. He in all probability additionally isn’t some random dude off the road that MacKinnon carried like a backpack, given what he achieved.
In that respect, calling Drouin a mean second-liner might be most truthful. His market worth intently aligns along with his contract projection: proper round $5 million.
I’d be cautious of giving out time period for the 31-year-old, and a few skepticism might be warranted given his setting. However it’s good to know Drouin can deal with being a complementary participant to a star on the high of the lineup, particularly given the defensive query marks inside his recreation earlier than he went to Colorado. You possibly can’t put simply anybody subsequent to MacKinnon and count on the identical manufacturing Drouin put up. For what it’s price, Drouin’s factors per 60 with MacKinnon over the past two years (1.98) was really decrease than with out (2.04).
Drouin might not be a driver, however there’s in all probability an honest variety of groups that would use him as a talented playmaker subsequent to their very own star.
Patrick Kane
After an injury-riddled 2022-23 marketing campaign, Patrick Kane appeared loads nearer to his common self the final two seasons with Detroit: loads of factors because of sturdy playmaking coupled with suspect protection.
His subsequent group can count on extra of the identical, however one factor to think about is Kane’s function.
With the Pink Wings, Kane had a soft gig on the highest energy play, the place he scored 29 of his 59 factors final season. Kane remains to be genuinely elite with the person benefit and helped energy the Pink Wings to a top-five end on the facility play. However he in all probability received’t supply top-six-caliber worth at five-on-five subsequent season with an anticipated offensive drop-off resulting from age and the same old poor play defensively.
AFP Analytics tasks a one-year deal at $3.5 million and whereas that worth might be wonderful even with out high power-play time (Kane’s market worth drops to $3.2 million), probably the most bang-for-your-buck hinges on Kane being a power-play service provider. That’s not a job not each group may have accessible.
Jamie Benn
After an unbelievably good postseason in 2024, Jamie Benn and his three factors in 18 video games in 2025 left loads to be desired.
There’s nonetheless loads to love about Benn’s recreation, given what he provides offensively at five-on-five, nevertheless it’s truthful to surprise how a lot fuel is left within the tank after an uninspiring playoff run. For a participant who has usually introduced his justifiable share of playoff warmth prior to now, it could possibly be a troubling signal of what’s to return. Benn has loads of miles on his physique as an influence ahead and is at an age the place there’s a very good likelihood it’s beginning to break down.
Furthering the difficulty is Benn’s defensive recreation, which has been steadily porous in 4 straight seasons. His minus-1.8 Defensive Ranking is likely one of the league’s lesser marks and that does make him a little bit more durable to belief down the lineup in a checking function if that’s the place his profession heads.
A brief deal nearer to $4 million needs to be wonderful for the veteran, however something approaching $5 million would possible be an excessive amount of.
Mikael Granlund
Sizzling take: I don’t assume Mikael Granlund has modified all that a lot from his seemingly terrible 2022-23 season and his seemingly stronger work since. Sure, he’s been higher, however the diploma to which is probably going overstated. It’s straightforward to be fooled by factors and Granlund is a chief instance of that.
What’s modified for Granlund over the past two seasons is that he’s handled protection as fully non-compulsory. That’s allowed him to bounce again to being a 60-point participant, nevertheless it’s come at an incredible price the opposite method. Some may argue that was as a result of he performed for the Sharks, however his xGA/60 was really worse in Dallas (3.61 in comparison with 3.24 with San Jose) this season. Granlund was by no means actually a powerful play-driver, however he was by no means this a lot of a legal responsibility both.
Given his age, Granlund’s subsequent deal has all of the makings of a regrettable one. Underneath the fitting circumstances, he can work nicely as an offensive power on a sheltered line. However that does make him a troublesome match and a troublesome promote at $5 million, as AFP Analytics tasks. Something over $4 million will in all probability be an excessive amount of.
Factors could make a participant wealthy, however when there’s no substance beneath them they could be a pink herring towards really profitable video games. One in every of Granlund’s finest comps being post-Penguins Phil Kessel speaks for itself.
Claude Giroux
Final season felt like the tip for Claude Giroux as an affect participant. Kudos to him for lasting as a top-line participant for so long as he did, however in his late 30s I might guess Giroux will likely be nearer to a middle-six expertise. That’s based mostly totally on how a lot Giroux’s recreation dropped off final season.
At five-on-five, Giroux scored simply 1.37 factors per 60 and noticed his relative xG charges drop to under common for the primary time in eight seasons to minus-0.29 per 60. That was the 54th worst ahead mark within the league. Amongst Ottawa’s forwards, Giroux’s 48 % xG fee was one of many lowest regardless of being stapled to Tim Stützle (54 % xG) for a lot of the yr.
AFP Analytics’ projection of $5.2 million can be wonderful for what Giroux was final season, however at 37 it’s truthful to count on additional decline subsequent season and past.
Ryan Donato
Final season could possibly be seen by means of two views for Ryan Donato: why he’s lengthy deserved an even bigger function and why he’s by no means acquired it.
Offensively, Donato has lengthy had some juice going again to his days on the Kraken’s super-charged fourth line. Again then, he scored over a purpose per 60 in back-to-back seasons and scored over two factors per 60 for Seattle — each have been top-six charges. If he might translate that up the lineup, a 50-to-60 level season wouldn’t be stunning. And that’s precisely what he delivered for the Blackhawks final yr.
The issue with Donato is that it comes on the expense of protection. There’s a cause he was at all times sheltered, and that manifested final yr the place he was on the ice for two.92 xGA/60, a below-average fee on one of many league’s worst defensive groups. It ended up being a worthy trade-off — Donato’s Offensive Ranking eclipsed his poor Defensive Ranking — however that’s not a profile many coaches put up with within the high six.
Along with his stand up the lineup, Donato has at the least confirmed he’s greater than a bottom-six scorer, however discovering a very good match for him received’t be straightforward. Final yr might simply be a contract-year flash, however even when it wasn’t, these plush offensive alternatives Donato earned in Chicago may show troublesome to seek out elsewhere. And if he’s not getting these, is he price $4 million?
Reilly Smith
It in all probability wouldn’t be sensible to provide 34-year-old Reilly Smith a deal that begins with a 4. However I do consider he’s been a bit unfairly maligned the final two seasons. He might not be the 50-point scorer he as soon as was, however Smith remains to be a reliable participant that may match into loads of totally different roles resulting from his diversified ability set. Smith might not have any elite traits, however he doesn’t have many unhealthy ones both. It’s boring, nevertheless it works. When Smith is on, the puck often travels in the fitting path — even when it doesn’t appear like he’s doing a lot on the market.
Smith’s defensive aptitude is the primary promoting level at this stage of his profession. It’s a professional asset and will serve him nicely as he transitions right into a bottom-six function going ahead. On the proper worth, round $3.5 million, Smith is a worthwhile get for a group in want of defensive stability.
Andrew Mangiapane
Final summer time it felt just like the Capitals bought a very good one in Andrew Mangiapane, a play-driving top-six ahead who can chip in 40 factors and be a sound defensive participant. He appeared like a needle-mover beneath the hood.
Issues didn’t fairly work out that method. He was largely marooned within the backside six resulting in a disappointing 28-point season. Mangiapane performed nicely defensively, however the offensive contact wasn’t manfiesting anymore.
Mangiapane’s factors per 60 has now dropped in 4 straight seasons from 2.24 in 2021-22 to 1.33 final yr. and he’s not capturing the puck as ceaselessly both. These are possible pink flags that the top-six model of Mangiapane isn’t returning and knowledge tracked by Corey Sznajder appears to help that. His involvement and effectivity with the puck has additionally dropped over the previous few years.
The best group might spark a bounce-back for Mangiapane, however for now the most secure wager is that he’s merely an sufficient third-liner. Nothing unsuitable with that, and a price-tag within the mid-3s feels truthful for what Mangiapane at the moment is.
Brandon Saad
If Brandon Saad’s flip with the Vegas Golden Knights is any indication, he’s nonetheless bought loads of recreation left in him from a play-driving perspective. With Vegas, Saad earned 62 % of anticipated objectives and 59 % of precise objectives — each extraordinarily sturdy relative to teammates. At five-on-five he additionally scored 1.96 factors per 60, proper according to his 2023-24 fee. Saad appeared rejuvenated, all he wanted was a change of surroundings.
AFP Analytics is projecting only a $2.6 million cap hit for the following two years for Saad and that feels mild for what he can nonetheless supply. Saad might not be an on a regular basis top-six participant anymore, however he appears to be like like he generally is a high-end third-liner — one simply price $3 million, or perhaps a shade extra.
The Dustin Brown comp appears to be like particularly attention-grabbing as a possible best-case situation path. Brown, a former top-six star on a championship group on the time, discovered a second wind in his mid-30s buoyed by his still-strong capacity to drive play at 33. A brand new house as a stable third-liner is most definitely. But when Saad’s work in Vegas is legit, there could possibly be room for him to bounce again to his former degree, much like what Brown was in a position to do on the similar age.
Connor Brown
It may possibly take a very long time for a participant to get again on monitor from a severe harm. A lengthy time. Connor Brown is an ideal instance of that.
His dip in 2023-24 and subsequent bounce-back in 2024-25 exhibits a quite common trajectory for a participant getting back from a prolonged absence, one the place endurance is usually rewarded. Brown’s projected worth on the chart above doesn’t even do his bounce-back justice because it contains knowledge from the season previous to clean out the forecast. His precise Web Ranking through the 2024-25 season was plus-0.1 — proper according to the participant he was earlier than harm. Brown’s plus-3.3 Defensive Ranking was one of many high marks amongst forwards, making him a viable checking line choice for a contending group — as he’s proven with the Oilers this spring.
If that’s who Brown will be going ahead, a $3 million deal could possibly be a cut price for a mean ahead (the place the fee can rise above $4 million) somewhat than the poor deal proven above. Due to final yr’s dip, some warning needs to be exercised. However given we all know why that dip occurred, there’s good cause to consider it’s merely a momentary roadblock on the highway to restoration. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Brown’s path veer in direction of the upside of his anticipated trajectory.
Victor Olofsson
After years of being a defensive legal responsibility for the Sabres, Victor Olofsson had a profession yr in that division for Vegas. The Golden Knights allowed simply 1.98 xGA/60 with Olofsson on the ice, 0.43 higher than his teammates. The latter was the eleventh finest mark within the league. When you consider the numbers above all else, it positive appears to be like like Olofsson has turned a defensive nook. Given his monitor document, I’m not as satisfied — not till he proves it once more.
On the very least, it does present what Olofsson is able to in the fitting state of affairs. Pair that with an awesome shot that significantly cooks on the facility play, and he will be an intriguing addition as a top-nine scorer. I might simply be cautious that his defensive glow-up was a flash-in-the-pan greater than a abruptly unlocked ability.
Vegas was proper so as to add him final summer time and did nicely to to get extra out of Olofsson’s recreation. However I’d be a bit cautious to provide him greater than $3 million. Or a lot time period, for that matter.
Jack Roslovic
It’s extraordinarily uncommon for 2 gamers to match as intently as Jack Roslovic does to 2017-18 Mikkel Boedker, a reasonably telling comp and a possible warning signal. Boedker was an empty-calorie scorer who light right into a depth function round this age, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see one thing comparable occur to Roslovic.
When Roslovic is on, he generally is a very productive participant. However he additionally has too many dry spells the place he doesn’t appear like he’s contributing at finest and the place, at worst, he’s a defensive legal responsibility. Roslovic’s capacity to retrieve pucks and exit the zone was a serious weak point final yr. It’s a bit damning that the Hurricanes, a savvy group that’s usually determined for objectives, felt the 22-goal scorer was not one in all their 12 finest forwards for an honest chunk of the playoffs. Roslovic’s defensive points have been in all probability one cause why.
It’s doable Roslovic has extra to provide as a high-end third-line scorer the place $4 million is sensible. But it surely feels extra possible he suits nearer to the decrease finish of the third-line spectrum the place a $3 million deal is extra truthful. That’s the value Carolina paid final summer time and I don’t consider a increase is warranted.
Mason Appleton
A prototypical third line participant. Mason Appleton isn’t a lot of a scorer, however he does play nicely with out the puck. Appleton’s work in retrieving pucks and clearing them from the defensive zone is above-average and he parlays that into sturdy forechecking within the offensive zone. He’s wonderful, although $3.2 million per yr might be stretching issues a contact. Getting Appleton beneath $3 million can be a bit extra palatable.
One attention-grabbing comp for Appleton: Pascal Dupuis, earlier than his Crosby-induced glow-up. Whereas a Viktor Stalberg-like trajectory is much extra possible, the distant risk that Appleton can take a leap doing grunt work subsequent to a star carries some intrigue — even when he by no means confirmed it taking part in with any of Winnipeg’s finest.
Anthony Beauvillier
After a heavy drop-off in 2023-24 and an epic bounce-back one yr later, it’s arduous to know who the actual Anthony Beauvillier is. Given the participant he was once, I’m tempted to say the mannequin’s skepticism might be a little bit too harsh on Beauvillier’s present degree — he appeared legitimately good for the Penguins and Capitals final season. He didn’t look misplaced within the high six both. Beauvillier’s worth goes past the field rating, the place he’s seemingly reinvented himself as a defensively sound participant.
Contemplating Beauvillier has by no means had such a repute earlier than, it’s truthful to stay cautious over how actual that reinvention is and whether or not or not it’s sustainable. However at $3 million, Beauvillier seems like a wonderful wager as an on a regular basis top-nine participant. Given his elevated playoff scoring fee, Beauvillier may even have some dawg in him, too.
Gustav Nyquist
The 2023-24 season was an attention-grabbing late-career surge for Gustav Nyquist, however he fell again to earth final yr. Going into his age 36 season, count on additional decline for Nyquist who possible slides firmly into third-line territory. Nyquist stays a gifted passer with respectable defensive instincts, which might make him serviceable in such a job, and a two-year deal that pays $3.2 million per season feels truthful.
Evgenii Dadonov
In every of the final two seasons, Evgenii Dadonov has been a productive depth scorer, placing up 1.65 points-per-60 at five-on-five. However he’s additionally on the unsuitable facet of 35, the place every year carries larger danger for a bigger drop-off. If Dadonov retains up final yr’s work, a $3 million deal works to be a third-liner. But it surely’s much more possible he drops off additional and struggles to reside as much as that worth. His finest comps being past-their-prime scorers who retired at this age — Marian Gaborik, Jason Pominville — in all probability doesn’t bode nicely.
Corey Perry
In some unspecified time in the future, the underside will fall out for Corey Perry; Father Time is undefeated. Based mostly on his work on this yr’s postseason, although, Perry positive appears to be like like a participant who nonetheless has loads of recreation left. With 10 objectives and 14 factors in 21 video games — an unfathomable stat line for a 40-year-old — Perry has been a rockstar for the Oilers.
AFP Analytics tasks a one-year deal just below $1 million for Perry subsequent season and even after accounting for growing old, that’s a simple name for Perry. He shouldn’t have a lot downside taking part in at a fourth-line degree for another season, and positively suits the model nicely on high of that.
Brandon Tanev
Two seasons in the past, Brandon Tanev was one of many high defensive depth gamers within the league, a professional asset within the backside six. Now, it’s unlikely a group is getting that model of Tanev, whose recreation has slipped significantly since 2022-23. He’s in all probability not the defensive participant he was once.
With that being stated, his work in Winnipeg — the place he had a 63 % xG fee — does depart room for optimism. On the fourth line of a very good group, it’s doable Tanev can nonetheless make an affect. Given his bigger latest physique of labor in Seattle, although, it’s in all probability not work that needs to be overpaid for. Except his subsequent group is definite of a bounce-back, a $2.2 million deal appears to be like a little bit too expensive for a fourth-liner.
— Information through Evolving Hockey, Pure Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Playing cards, AFP Analytics and All Three Zones
(Prime photograph of Nikolaj Ehlers and Mitch Marner: Claus Andersen / Getty Photographs)
