By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille, and Shayna Goldman
The Toronto Maple Leafs, by advantage of stopping their first-round slide in opposition to the Ottawa Senators from turning right into a full-on collapse, cleared one hurdle.
Now, they’re confronted with one other — and it’s a lot, a lot taller than the final. Ready for them within the second spherical are the Florida Panthers, who instantly snapped again into defending-champ mode in opposition to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Two years in the past, additionally within the second spherical, the Panthers took out Toronto in 5 video games. Issues have modified on either side. It’s time to see simply how a lot.
The chances
The Panthers are favored — no shock there. What could also be a bit complicated is the margin, one which requires a tighter sequence than many seemingly anticipated between the defending champions and a workforce that struggles to regulate play.
Whereas the mannequin likes the Leafs much more than their anticipated aim fee due to their robust goaltending, workforce protection and having 4 offensive stars (all issues Florida can match, thoughts you), the large factor right here is dwelling ice benefit.
Residence groups received much more than regular this season (56 p.c in comparison with 53 p.c the final three years) and that pattern carried over to the playoffs the place the house facet has a staggering 29-15 document. Toronto’s greatest likelihood on this sequence comes from caring for enterprise at dwelling the place the Leafs have been 27-13-1 through the season, whereas the Panthers have been 20-19-2 on the highway. If dwelling ice was flipped, Florida’s possibilities would rise to 59 p.c.
The Panthers are the higher workforce, however Toronto’s capacity to ‘win ugly’ beneath Craig Berube may make issues harder than it appears at first look for Florida.
The numbers
A plus-eight Internet Score separates the Panthers and Maple Leafs, however there are some variations within the course of to get to that time.
At five-on-five, the Panthers have extra oomph beneath the floor. Florida was top-of-the-line regular-season groups within the league for a cause; they generated a ton of high quality offense and have been stingy in their very own finish. The Leafs, after altering how they play this 12 months, created much less offense than the Panthers however transformed on a better clip of their possibilities. Toronto’s goaltending additionally gave them stronger outcomes on the opposite finish of the ice, despite the fact that their anticipated aim suppression wasn’t as stout.
The Leafs amped up their protection in opposition to the Senators, however containing Florida is a unique problem. The Panthers’ protection was tight and took away the Lightning’s house. If Toronto goes to chop by that, the workforce should choose up the tempo from Spherical 1.
The Panthers have extra substance to their five-on-five offense, however the Leafs have extra on the ability play. Toronto’s five-forward energy play unit was dynamic down the stretch and into Spherical 1. However the Panthers’ penalty kill was a serious power within the common season and lights out in Spherical 1. That brings their Defensive Score as much as a plus-30, which simply edges out Toronto. However the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill is not any pushover, both. If they’ll include Florida’s energy play, it may neutralize the particular groups battle and put additional emphasis on five-on-five play.
The massive query
Can Auston Matthews be Auston Matthews?
It’s powerful to think about Sport 6 in opposition to the Senators getting off to a greater begin for the Leafs — or for Auston Matthews. An influence-play aim close to the top of the primary interval lowered the temperature for Toronto; having to dig their means out of an early deficit after dropping two straight video games would have been … lower than best.
And to make sure, the Leafs would’ve taken that first aim from anybody. The truth that it was Matthews, although, had to assist. He’d been high quality within the sequence till that time, particularly within the first three video games, however not practically at his greatest. The way in which he scored, on a delicate wrist shot that appeared extra like a go than anything, was ironic. He put the puck on web, however a main alternative, it was not.
We’ll see whether or not that opens the floodgates. Till that time, he was taking part in the Senators to outcomes much like what we noticed from him within the common season: loads of anticipated targets (about three), and never a ton of precise targets (one in Sport 3).
Is that an enormous hole? Not for the typical NHL participant — however Matthews, as we all know, is way from a mean NHL participant. In 629 regular-season video games, he has 401 regular-season targets, about 80 greater than anticipated. So it goes when you’ve gotten elite ending capacity. Matthews didn’t flash that in opposition to Ottawa, although, and he hadn’t flashed it within the common season: he had 34 targets in comparison with about 40 anticipated, the primary time in his profession that the previous didn’t exceed the latter and coming in significantly stark distinction to 2023-24 (69 precise vs. 50 anticipated).
In different phrases, in relation to Matthews’ manufacturing, we’re witnessing him at his ground. That ground: a 95-point tempo with dominant five-on-five play. Not unhealthy.
The query is whether or not “not unhealthy” shall be ok to get Toronto previous a workforce that includes two Selke finalists on its prime line. In all probability not. Matthews doesn’t simply must create five-on-five possibilities on this sequence; he must capitalize on them. His monitor document in opposition to Aleksander Barkov particularly during the last three common seasons is powerful. When each have been on the ice, the Leafs outscored the Panthers 5-1 and managed 60 p.c of the anticipated targets.
Their playoff sequence in 2023, although, was virtually a literal draw: neither workforce scored within the 38:35 Barkov and Matthews have been on the ice collectively, and the anticipated aim share was 50/50. Florida, in fact, received that sequence going away. Sam Reinhart has additionally grown since that sequence as each a goal-scorer and a defensive participant. If by the top of the sequence, we’re speaking as soon as once more about each groups’ prime strains canceling one another out, it in all probability received’t be excellent news for the Leafs. Florida’s ahead depth is just too good, making it extra essential than ever that Matthews is taking part in (and producing) at his customary degree of greatness.
The X-factor
Is Seth Jones lastly exhibiting he could be The Man?
When Florida, flush with cash to spend after Matthew Tkachuk’s groin damage on the 4 Nations Face-Off, acquired Seth Jones from the Blackhawks, our overriding sentiment was, “Good transfer! Now he performs on a second pair, the place he belongs.” Aaron Ekblad’s 20-game PED suspension threw a wrench within the works, although, pushing Jones again up the lineup for the final chunk of the common season. The outcomes weren’t nice; Florida’s numbers with him on the ice at five-on-five fell throughout the board, and so they have been outscored 13-9.
The primary spherical, although, acted as some extent of validation. With Ekblad round for a portion of it — between suspensions, not less than — to deal with a bit of the hardest minutes alongside Gustav Forsling, Jones led the workforce in common ice time (25:41) and crushed his time at five-on-five. Florida received his minutes 4-0 with an anticipated aim fee of about 55 p.c. Jones threw in a Sport 4 profitable aim for good measure and blocked a bunch of photographs, too, typically wanting the a part of a playoff-ready defenseman.
Getting that type of manufacturing from their second pair (assuming Eblad doesn’t get suspended once more) could be big for the Panthers. That’s the man Florida wants — not the man Jones was pressured to be with Chicago.
The rosters
On paper, there are a whole lot of similarities between these two golf equipment and the way they’re constructed. Elite firepower, stingy protection, and all-world goaltending to tie a pleasant bow on it.
Up entrance, it’s the elite trifecta of Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander going head-to-head in opposition to Barkov, Reinhart, and Tkachuk — a digital draw by Internet Score. Between these six gamers, Toronto and Florida have a number of the best possible gamers on this planet going head-to-head.
Matthews and Marner have the offensive edge in opposition to Barkov and Reinhart, however the latter are stronger defensively. Matthews and Marner are actually robust defensively in their very own proper, simply to not the extent of Florida’s Selke finalist duo. This can be a true heavyweight tilt and it wouldn’t be a shock to see each coaches go for energy vs. energy on this sequence. Could the perfect duo win.
These elite two-way duos permit Nylander and Tkachuk to thrive in secondary matchups — and are available up clutch when it counts. Each Nylander and Tkachuk thrive within the massive moments and that confirmed within the opening spherical. Nylander led the Leafs with 9 factors in six video games together with three in Sport 6, whereas Tkachuk dominated Sport 1 with three factors of his personal.
The place the Leafs may have an edge is within the chance that Tkachuk isn’t fairly 100%. He averaged simply 14 minutes of ice-time in opposition to Tampa Bay and was ninth on Florida’s ahead depth chart. He was nonetheless hyper-efficient in these minutes, however could also be much less of a think about a tighter-checking sequence.
With John Tavares and Matthew Knies rounding out the highest six, the Leafs even have extra secondary weapons after their massive three relative to the Panthers. That additional firepower was particularly current on the workforce’s five-man energy play which was scintillating in opposition to Ottawa. Nearly as good as Carter Verhaeghe and Brad Marchand are, they don’t fairly transfer the needle like Tavares and Knies.
Florida makes up for that edge on the backend with the presence of Forsling, the true No. 1 defenseman that Toronto lacks. Chris Tanev is arguably a greater defender, however Forsling doesn’t sacrifice any offense to get to a equally elite peak with out the puck. He supplies a lift to the workforce’s firepower, whereas Tanev struggles to assist create offense in-zone. That’s not his job, however when he spends a lot time with Toronto’s prime line, his lack of offensive items does play a job within the workforce’s prime forwards missing their regular pop. That’s not a difficulty for Florida, who not solely have Forsling, but additionally Ekblad and Jones to bolster the assault.
An absence of offense from the back-end is an issue basically for the Leafs the place solely Morgan Rielly could be dependably relied on for it. The center of Toronto’s blue line is the strongest it’s ever been and matches up high quality with Florida’s — however the lack of a real two-way No. 1 defenseman is obvious right here. This group ought to be capable of deal with Florida’s fierce forecheck higher than earlier than, nevertheless it comes at a value with the puck.
Toronto’s goaltending may make up for that if the common season hole between Anthony Stolarz and Sergei Bobrovsky persists. However Bobrovsky’s championship pedigree in all probability makes him the higher guess — numbers be damned.
On steadiness, the 2 groups come out pretty equal wanting on the prime 5 forwards and prime 4 defensemen — particularly with the goaltending edge proven right here for Toronto being extremely debatable. Toronto wins some particular person battles and Florida wins some others. The top result’s a draw.
The place Florida’s edge lies is in its depth, particularly up entrance. Tkachuk isn’t fairly 100%? No downside — the workforce’s “third” line of Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen and Marchand have been greater than able to dominate. All three had 5 factors in 5 video games and tilted the ice closely within the Panthers’ favor. The Panthers even have Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues subsequent to Tkachuk, with the previous being an actual playoff difference-maker and the latter being a powerful defensive participant.
That’s an extremely deep prime 9 with a number of guys who actually transfer the needle at each ends of the ice. That’s one thing the Leafs merely do not need a solution for the place there’s a large drop-off after Knies in ahead expertise. Bobby McMann struggling during the last couple of months solely provides to that.
There’s no dependable secondary supply of offense. In Toronto, The Core 5 did their half within the first spherical, however the workforce had a tough time discovering a match subsequent to Tavares and Nylander, and any line mixture with Max Domi was a defensive terror. Domi pitched in for some massive moments, however he additionally bought dominated at five-on-five to the tune of a 37 p.c xG fee. The workforce’s checking line, anchored by Scott Laughton, was a nice shock and did a terrific job of creating certain nothing occurred, however that’s a double-edged sword that places extra offensive pressure on the large weapons.
In opposition to Ottawa, that was a one-sided matchup which Toronto’s greatest gamers have been capable of thrive in.
In opposition to Florida, it’ll be a unique story. These stars can have an equal counterpart on the opposite facet. If Toronto’s prime guys aren’t higher, it falls to the depth to select up the items. On this sequence specifically, that’s an enormous concern and places the Panthers on a probable path to their third straight convention last.
The important thing matchup
Anthony Stolarz vs. Sergei Bobrovsky
Stolarz put up glowing numbers in Florida final 12 months, with 21.7 targets saved above anticipated in 27 video games, which technically beat Bobrovsky’s 15.8 in 58 video games. However as soon as the playoffs rolled round, that didn’t matter. Bobrovsky was The Man for the Panthers on their method to a Stanley Cup.
With the Leafs, Stolarz bought the prospect to show that he may very well be Their Man. He was an ace within the common season for the second straight 12 months, and that’s why the mannequin provides him the sting right here. Solely Connor Hellebuyck has saved extra targets above anticipated than Stolarz over the previous two seasons. However thriving within the common season doesn’t at all times translate to the playoffs — Bobrovksy needed to study that the laborious means. Over the past two seasons, Playoff Bob has taken on a brand new that means; he’s the star the Panthers want when the stress rises.
Stolarz has to show he can match that, particularly in a high-volume starter’s function he’s unfamiliar with. 4 high quality begins in a six-game sequence in opposition to Ottawa is an efficient begin, however this matchup in opposition to his former teammates is the take a look at.
The underside line
Does anybody “Need Florida” this spring? They shouldn’t after seeing how harmful the reigning champs are at full power.
The Panthers know what it takes this time of 12 months, which is why they received the East the final two seasons. The Leafs haven’t made it to Spherical 3 in 23 years, and it will likely be a grind to alter that in opposition to Florida.
References
Understanding projection uncertainty
Assets
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Prime photograph of Auston Matthews, Sam Bennett and Gustav Forsling: John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Photographs)
