By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn
In a unique timeline — one wherein Jack Hughes stays wholesome and Mikko Rantanen stays in Carolina — this matchup would’ve been a heavyweight tilt.
That’s not the timeline we dwell in, sadly, however we should always nonetheless get a fairly robust battle between two groups that symbolize the way forward for the Metropolitan Division. On this yr’s version, the Hurricanes have the determined edge.
The percentages
The Hurricanes are one of many heavier opening-round favorites with a greater than two-to-one likelihood of besting the Devils.
That giant margin of victory is partly a results of the harm mess New Jersey is coping with, however the Devils would nonetheless be underdogs even with Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler within the lineup. Their absence offers the Hurricanes an additional 10 share factors of win chance, which isn’t sufficient to cowl the present hole between the 2 groups.
The Hurricanes haven’t misplaced within the first spherical since 2020, their solely opening-round loss within the Rod Brind’Amour period. It’s unlikely that modifications this yr.
The numbers
12 months after yr, the Hurricanes are among the best five-on-five groups within the league. It’s a credit score to the system that’s extra than simply group ways — it’s a core a part of this group’s identification.
Nobody pours photographs just like the Canes or limits their opponents’ makes an attempt. The forecheck stays a driving drive behind that. However this yr, it’s not the one a part of their assault. Carolina has sprinkled in additional rush photographs to spice up its anticipated aim charge to a league-high 3.06 per 60.
Regardless of the Hurricanes’ elite shot suppression, their anticipated aim limitation isn’t as stout. That is the place the Devils achieve a slight edge at five-on-five, which may assist counter an offense that’s solely barely above common league-wide. In contrast to the final time these two met within the playoffs in 2023, the Devils have extra stability to their assault. The push continues to be a energy, however now so is their forecheck, which is essential in a playoff surroundings.
The frequent thread between these groups offensively is that each wrestle to transform on their probabilities at five-on-five. The distinction is that the Devils have a red-hot energy play to assist make up for it, whereas the Canes wrestle to attain on the benefit.
However the particular groups edge shifts to the Hurricanes on the opposite finish of the ice. The Canes run a disruptive penalty kill that has been particularly stingy because the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Devils’ short-handed play was positive many of the season however has been a bit leakier down the stretch.
The massive query
Who will step up within the absence of Jack Hughes?
There’s no changing Hughes. May as nicely get that out of the best way up high. He won’t have been at his best possible on the time of his season-ending shoulder surgical procedure, however he was nonetheless ninth within the NHL with 70 factors and had began exhibiting actual indicators of two-way enchancment beneath Sheldon Keefe, with an anticipated targets share of about 57. GM Tom Fitzgerald added on the deadline, however solely across the margins. There was no high-end first-line middle available; Fitzgerald was sensible to not drive it.
For the brief time period, although, that leaves New Jersey with a gaping gap on the high of the lineup. We’ve seen it over the past month, too — whereas they deserve credit score for staying afloat, they’ve additionally been dramatically out-scored and out-chanced at five-on-five in Hughes’ absence. That, greater than the rest, is what makes them a significant underdog heading into this collection. Take away any group’s finest offensive participant and, odds are, you’ll get one thing comparable.
By means of all of it, the Devils have continued to get robust manufacturing from the remainder of their core; Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt are each producing greater than a degree per sport general since March 3, and Timo Meier’s goal-scoring charge has jumped from 0.9 per 60 to about 1.6 per 60. Anticipating rather more than that might be unfair. Most of that work has come on the ability play, the place the Devils are a top-10 group in targets (precise and anticipated) even with out Hughes.
It’s value noting, although, that their effectiveness at five-on-five has tumbled; with every of them on the ice when Hughes was within the combine, New Jersey may rely on an anticipated targets/60 nicely over 3.0. Now, they’re all within the 2s; Bratt particularly has gone from 3.24 to 2.47. Crew-wide, they’re both at or close to the underside of each essential five-on-five class since March 3. In the event that they’re going to have an opportunity, that’ll have to alter.
In fact, the obvious potential pivot level is the play of Dawson Mercer. He’s been good up to now — that 56-point season in 2022-23 as a 22-year-old counts for one thing — however they’ve gotten almost nothing from him since Hughes’ harm. The thought, in some spots, was that he’d run with one other alternative at top-six minutes, and it hasn’t come near panning out. He’s placing up 1.3 factors per 60 since March 3, which is fifteenth on the group; he’s received only one five-on-five aim; the Devils are getting outscored 10-5 with him on the ice; amongst their forwards, solely fourth-liner Curtis Lazar is on the ice for a decrease shot-share share. We may proceed, but it surely’d really feel like overkill.
The Devils’ finest hope right here, cliche because it sounds, is to hope that the ability play continues to prepare dinner, that Luke Hughes and the return of Dougie Hamilton kickstart issues for the offense from the again finish, and that Jacob Markstrom steals a sport or three. We’ve seen stranger issues. Don’t maintain your breath, although.
The X-factor
Can Logan Stankoven be a dependable secondary supply of offense?
Some matches simply make sense. When it turned clear that Mikko Rantanen wasn’t lengthy for Raleigh, that Carolina can be finest served by slicing its losses, and that Dallas was , Stankoven as the first return felt nearly inevitable. An undersized-but-tenacious likelihood machine? Rod Brind’Amour says, “Sure, please.”
To date, Stankoven — nonetheless a rookie, by the best way — has match the invoice in additional methods than one. He’s certainly an opportunity machine, placing up 1.18 anticipated targets /60 with the Canes. For comparability, Rantanen was at 1.15, and the one gamers who did higher over the course of a full season are Auston Matthews and Zach Hyman. Past that, Stankoven’s 18.6 shot makes an attempt per 60 are up there with Seth Jarvis (one other undersized-but-tenacious likelihood machine) amongst Carolina’s leaders.
The problem, as it’s so usually with the Hurricanes, is that Stankoven hasn’t fairly been capable of capitalize on all these alternatives; 0.85 targets/60 at five-on-five is absolutely good, however not nice. Carolina would little question wish to see Stankoven lengthen his latest sizzling streak. The method is sound, they usually’re fourth within the NHL in five-on-five targets/60 because the deadline, however extra targets is at all times higher.
The rosters
Stankoven has all of the instruments to be an ideal match for the Hurricanes in the long term. So does Seth Jarvis; he’s just some steps forward of his new teammate.
Jarvis’ function and accountability have elevated over the past couple of seasons, and so has his manufacturing to match. He’s tasked with matching as much as a number of the hardest offensive competitors within the league this yr and has earned among the best Defensive Scores of any ahead this season within the course of. And that hasn’t weighed down his offense, both — his scoring is on the rise, and so is his puck-moving potential. That has shined on a high line with Sebastian Aho and Jackson Blake. The Canes are driving play with this trio deployed with a 67 % anticipated aim charge and a 13-5 scoring edge of their minutes.
Carolina tends to separate matchup minutes between Jarvis and Aho on the highest line and Jordan Staal on the third. Towards a Jack Hughes-less Devils group, Staal (and probably Stankoven and Jordan Martinook, relying on how the traces shake out) might begin with that burden to liberate Jarvis and Aho to prepare dinner a bit extra offensively.
With two traces that may shoulder high minutes, the second line will be sheltered, which agrees with Taylor Corridor. There have been indicators in Chicago that he nonetheless had some juice left, like his potential to arrange scoring probabilities; with Carolina, he has the outcomes to again it up. Mark Jankowski, a low-key deadline add, can be making an influence along with his new group. That deep strategy ought to agree with Andrei Svechnikov, who doesn’t face as a lot stress this yr to be The Man.
Whereas Jarvis, Aho, and even Staal are cornerstones who assist the Canes preserve their system regardless of many tweaks to the supporting forged, Jaccob Slavin is the spine of the protection. He’s an elite shutdown defenseman and probably the most invaluable on this collection, with a plus-7.8 Internet Ranking.
Anticipate to see Slavin go head-to-head with the Nico Hischier line since he and Brent Burns tackle high competitors once more this season. Final yr, that function belonged to the second pair. After a number of roster turnover, which bumped up Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield up the depth chart, that accountability has shifted again to the primary pair. These deployment choices assist the Canes maximize Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere on the third pair.
Having three succesful defensive pairs is crucial for the Canes, who don’t have the steadiest goaltending state of affairs. Frederik Andersen has been stable since returning to the lineup, however there are sturdiness issues. He’s seemingly the starter on Day 1 of the playoffs, although, as a result of Pyotr Kochetkov hasn’t been constant sufficient — particularly not over the past month of motion.
Goaltending isn’t good on both facet of this matchup. Jacob Markstrom’s Devils’ tenure began tough. However by December, he confirmed he had the chops to be the primary this group has been lacking. An harm in January derailed that progress, and it took time for him to get again on top of things. Markstrom appears considerably again on monitor, with 5 high quality begins in his final seven outings. The issue is that his two below-average begins had been outright terrible. So, the protection ought to attempt to hold their primary as insulated as potential.
That will probably be a tricky ask, with Jonas Siegenthaler seemingly out for this collection. Jonathan Kovacevic’s sport began to unravel when his mainstay associate was sidelined, however the addition of Brian Dumoulin has helped stabilize that second pair.
The Devils are getting some reinforcements again for Spherical 1, with Hamilton gearing as much as return. He clearly received’t do a lot for the Devils’ shutdown sport, however he’s a play driver who may give this group an actual offensive enhance. Luke Hughes stepped up in his absence alongside former Cane Brett Pesce — if Hughes can preserve this stage even when (or if) his function modifications with the return of Hamilton, this blue line will probably be in stable form. On the very least, contemplating how a lot Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey have struggled, it ought to knock out a weak hyperlink within the number-six function.
Up entrance, with out a wholesome Jack Hughes, Hischier emerges as probably the most invaluable participant on this collection. He’s an elite two-way middle who may get some Selke appreciation this spring. However he alone can’t drive this group into Spherical 2.
With Hischer and Jesper Bratt stacked on the highest line, the Devils are top-heavy heading into the playoffs. With Ondrej Palat on their left, this line has a 55 % anticipated aim charge and a 30-22 scoring benefit. However with the Canes’ shutdown depth, the coaches might wish to cut up this line extra evenly, contemplating how bleak the roster is beneath them.
The issue is that there will not be sufficient dependable scoring if the ability play is contained. Palat tends to come back alive within the playoffs, however that isn’t a dependable promise. Meier wants extra oomph behind his scoring to keep up it. Erika Haula and Cody Glass have been vivid spots currently, and so has Stefan Noesen, however is that sufficient? The Devils must carry out greater than the sum of their elements to get previous Carolina this time.
The important thing matchup
Sebastian Aho vs. Nico Hischier
We’re not doing ‘underrated’ discourse within the yr 2025, but when we needed to identify two of the league’s Dangerfields, Aho and Hischier can be close to the highest of the listing.
Neither appears to get the respect they deserve as accountable high line two-way facilities. Aho is tucked away in Carolina taking part in in a defensive dump-and-chase system, but nonetheless manages to be near a point-per-game participant. Hischier is tucked behind Hughes, however nonetheless manages to tempo for 70-plus factors regardless of absorbing all of the powerful assignments.
For each, possession play is the important thing to success and the battle between the 2 will probably be one thing to observe. Hischier is the one to guess on this yr after a stronger season, however he’ll have to hold that up on this collection given the Devils’ depth drawback. If he loses this matchup, it’s goodnight New Jersey.
The underside line
The presence of gamers like Hischier and Bratt and Markstrom’s better-than-average potential to steal a number of video games makes the Devils inconceivable to rely out, however the Hurricanes’ depth, expertise and demonstrated five-on-five dominance imply that good cash continues to be on them.
References
Understanding projection uncertainty
Sources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(High picture of Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis in opposition to the Devils: James Guillory / Imagn Photos)
